Cablegate: Embassy Minsk Weekly Pol/Econ Report - October 26, 2007

VZCZCXRO0463
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0904/01 2991448
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261448Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6603
INFO RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0118
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1709
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000904

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - October 26, 2007

1. The following are brief items of interest compiled by Embassy
Minsk.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Civil Society
-------------

- Opposition Party Establishes Youth Wing (para. 2)
- Activists Protest Expulsions (para. 3)
- Activist Re-Arrested Immediately Following Release (para. 4)
- Commemorative Rallies Banned in Gomel (para. 5)
- "For Freedom" Denied Registration Yet Again (para. 6)
- Activists Rally for Political Prisoner (para. 7)

International Relations
-----------------------

- Belarus Expands Cooperation with UAE (para. 8)

Domestic Economy
----------------

- New State Monopoly for Tobacco Products (para. 9)
- Inflation Rises in September (para. 10)

International Trade
-------------------

- Belarus to Invite Nuclear Power Plant Bids (para. 11)

- Quote of the Week (para. 12)

-------------
Civil Society
-------------

2. Opposition Party Establishes Youth Wing

The United Civic Party (UCP) held the founding conference for its
youth wing Young Democrats (YD) on October 21. The 49 delegates
elected Aleksandr Shumkevich to lead the organization. UCP Leader
Anatoliy Lebedko maintained that his party would always be "a
reliable partner for YD." YD members plan to participate in the
2008 parliamentary elections.

3. Activists Protest Expulsions

On October 19, the Ministry of Education turned down a complaint
filed by Gomel-based opposition youth leader Dmitry Zheleznichenko,
who was challenging his expulsion from university. In a separate
case October 23, Grodno University administrators expelled civil
society activist Ekaterina Bychek. Both activists were expelled on
the grounds of violating internal school policies, though they
describe the expulsions as politically motivated and plan to appeal
in court. Bychek has been an active participant in campaigns for
Grodno historic and architectural protection, and was arrested in
May 2006 on administrative charges.

4. Activist Re-Arrested Immediately Following Release

A Minsk district judge sentenced youth opposition activist Pavel
Yukhnevich to 15 days in jail on minor hooliganism charges October
19, just one day after Yukhnevich was released from a 7-day jail
sentence. The judge had earlier found Yukhnevich guilty of using
obscenities during his arrest at an underground theater show on
August 24.

5. Commemorative Rallies Banned in Gomel

On October 19, Gomel city authorities banned proposed rallies
commemorating Stalinist terror victims. The demonstrations were to
be held October 27 at the site of the executions. Local Belarusian
Christian Democracy (BCD) party coordinators Konstantin Zhukovsky
and Svyatoslav Shapovalov asserted that authorities were attempting
to conceal facts of mass executions just outside of Gomel.

6. "For Freedom" Denied Registration Yet Again

The Ministry of Justice (MOJ) denied the human rights and
educational NGO "For Freedom" movement (FF) registration October 22.
The MOJ claimed that FF's founders violated the law by holding a
convention at a closed children's camp in the woods. FF deputy
chairperson Yuras Gubarevich argued that the laws do not provide
detailed descriptions of permitted venues for conferences, and noted
the NGO plans to appeal the MOJ's denial to the Supreme Court. NGO
members plan to submit a complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee
if they are denied again.

MINSK 00000904 002 OF 002

7. Activists Rally for Political Prisoner

Belarusian Social-Democratic Party Gramada (BSDP-G) activists staged
an authorized three-hour picket in Minsk on October 24 calling on
authorities to release party leader Aleksandr Kozulin. Ten
activists, including Kozulin's daughter Olga, displayed BSDP-G flags
and signs urging Kozulin's release and collected signatures for a
petition to President Lukashenko. Police officers and
plainclothesmen confronted the demonstrators and tore up a
protester's sign. Picket organizers said they would file a
complaint against the police behavior.

-----------------------
International Relations
-----------------------

8. Belarus Expands Cooperation with UAE

Viktor Sheiman, State Secretary of Belarus' Security Council and
co-chairman of the Working group on Belarus' bilateral relations
with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), visited the UAE October 23-24.
He met with senior officials, including Sheikh Mohammed ben Zaid Al
Nakhaim, Crown prince of Abu-Dhabi and Deputy Commander in Chief of
the UAE Armed Forces. The parties discussed cooperation in oil
processing, investment in real estate and industrial enterprises,
construction projects, and joint work in IT and defense. Though
trade between the states remains negligible, Belarus' concentration
on the UAE has intensified following President Lukashenko's official
visit there in March. The UAE plans to open an embassy in Minsk
and the crown prince may make an official visit.

----------------
Domestic Economy
----------------

9. New State Monopoly for Tobacco Products

On October 19, President Lukashenko signed Decree Number 4, making
the GOB the official monopoly importer of raw tobacco and tobacco
products. Belarustorg, owned by the Presidential Administration,
will be the sole importer of cigarettes starting in January 2008,
replacing the four current importers. Russia is set to greatly
increase its export of tobacco products to Belarus under an
interstate trade agreement which obligated Belarus to abolish import
quotas on Russian-made tobacco products starting October 1.

10. Inflation Rises in September

The Belarusian Statistics Ministry reported on October 22 that the
one-percent monthly core inflation rate for September was the
highest increase since December 2004. Cumulative inflation for
January-September 2007 was 5.1 percent, compared to 4.9 percent in
2006 and 6.4 percent in 2005. The producer price index rose 1.1
percent for the month of September. January through September, the
PPI increased 13.4 percent, versus 8.5 percent for the same period
in 2006 and 10.2 percent in 2005.

-------------------
International Trade
-------------------

11. Belarus to Invite Nuclear Power Plant Bids

Following his meeting with Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov
October 19, Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Sidorsky told reporters
that Belarus will invite bids to build a nuclear power plant next
year. The project has already been approved by President Lukashenko
and is a key element in the country's future energy plans. Prime
Minister Zubkov said his country is interested in the project and
hopes to participate in power plant construction.

----------------------
12. Quote of the Week
----------------------

Former assistant to President Lukashenko and current Belarusian
Ambassador to Israel Igor Leshchenya, trying -- and failing -- to
mitigate the fallout from Lukashenko's anti-Semitic statement:

"[I] never heard him utter an anti-Semitic sentiment.... He used to
say that we need to be as clever as Jews are to build a prosperous
state."

Stewart

© Scoop Media