Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 11/13/07

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 005222

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 11/13/07

Index:

(1) Prime minister off to the US to make excuses for halted
refueling operation, delay in passage of new antiterror legislation?
(Sankei)

(2) Poll on new Fukuda cabinet, political parties (Nikkei)

(3) Poor government with no philosophy: Takubo (Sankei)

(4) Editorial: Ruling, opposition parties should find common ground
on a new refueling law (Asahi)

(5) Former Administrative Vice Defense Minister Moriya strongly
opposed CX engine contract without agency, reversing prevailing view
in ministry (Mainichi)

(6) Jenkins: "I do not believe Pyongyang's claim that Megumi died"
(Tokyo Shimbun)

(7) TOP HEADLINES

(8) EDITORIALS

(9) Prime Minister's schedule, Nov. 9 (Nikkei)

ARTICLES:

(1) Prime minister off to the US to make excuses for halted
refueling operation, delay in passage of new antiterror
legislation?

SANKEI (Page 5) (Full)
November 10, 2007

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will visit the US for the first time
since taking office as prime minister. During the trip, he will
likely keep a low profile and be busy giving explanations on the
setbacks caused by the trading of places between the ruling and
opposition camps in the Upper House. His first summit with President
Bush is set for the 16th. He will convey to the president the
government's willingness to continue the Maritime Self-Defense
Force's (MSDF) refueling operations in the Indian Ocean, while
offering explanations on the halt of the operations due to the delay
in Diet deliberations on the new antiterrorism special measures
bill.

Fukuda, who advocates giving priority to Asia diplomacy, underscored
in his policy speech delivered on Oct. 1 that the Japan-US alliance
is the linchpin of Japan's diplomacy. According to his aide, he
intends to convey to Bush his stance of continuing the
honeymoon-like relationship with him, which the Koizumi and Abe
administrations have built, and play up the importance of bilateral
relations, by explaining his stance on Asia diplomacy in his talks
with the president.

His itinerary has been changed several times due to the Diet
deliberation schedule for the new antiterror bill. The schedule
generally appears to have been set with departure on the evening of
the 15th and summit meeting on the 16th. However, a schedule for a
visit to Singapore has been amended. Coordination is now underway
with the possibility of his returning home temporarily before

TOKYO 00005222 002 OF 010

visiting that country, based on the assumption that deliberations in
the Upper House might be held on the 19th.

Fukuda during his meeting with Bush will explain that the delay in
Diet deliberations has been caused by resistance from the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) and convey the government's stance
of continuing efforts for resumption of the refueling operation.

Even so, the fact will remain that Japan has pulled out of the fight
against terrorism with the expiration of the Antiterrorism Special
Measures Law on Nov. 1, leaving the future of Japan stained, as
Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura put it. Fukuda will
likely have to give strained explanations.

There are also mountains of challenges between the two countries,
such as US bases in Okinawa, North Korea, and imports of US beef, as
well as the new antiterror bill.

The government on the 7th resumed a relocation conference involving
participants from concerned regional areas to discuss the relocation
of Futenma Air Station located in Ginowan City, Okinawa Prefecture.
However, it has simply indicated a stance of reaching some sort of
settlement at least on the Okinawa issue with the prime minister's
US visit just ahead. Prospects for settling the issue have yet to be
ascertained.

The US has shown a willingness to remove North Korea from the list
of state sponsors for terrorism as early as within the year. Fukuda
is determined to continue to ask for cooperation from Bush for a
settlement of the abduction issue. However, there is a growing view
in Japan that the abduction issue has become somebody else's problem
for the US, as one Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) member put it. To
what extent can Fukuda halt the move to remove North Korea from the
list? Talks on imports of US beef remain deadlocked over import
conditions.

Fukuda told reporters on the 8th, "Every country has various
problems. We have to surmount problems, if our relations with the US
are important."

(2) Poll on new Fukuda cabinet, political parties

NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full)
November 13, 2007

Questions & Answers
(Figures shown in percentage. Parentheses denote findings from the
last survey conducted in late October.)

Q: Do you support the Abe cabinet?

Yes 55 (55)
No 33 (31)
Can't say (C/S) + don't know (D/K) 12 (14)

Q: Which political party do you support or like now?

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 42 (38)
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 28 (32)
New Komeito (NK) 3 (4)
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 3 (3)
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2 (2)

TOKYO 00005222 003 OF 010

People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 (0)
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (0)
Other political parties 0 (0)
None 16 (15)
C/S+D/K 5 (6)

(Note) The total percentage does not become 100 PERCENT in some
cases due to rounding.

Polling methodology: The survey was taken on Nov. 10-12 by Nikkei
Research Inc. over the telephone on a random digit dialing (RDD)
basis. For the survey, samples were chosen from among men and women
aged 20 and over across the nation. A total of 1,514 households with
one or more voters were sampled, and answers were obtained from 919
persons (60.7 PERCENT ).

(3) Poor government with no philosophy: Takubo

SANKEI (Page 13) (Abridged)
November 8, 2007

Tadae Takubo, visiting professor at Kyorin University

It looks like the media's attention was focused on whether
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro Ozawa would
resign from his party post. To me, however, it does not matter much.
DPJ President Ozawa read a prepared note when he met the press to
express his intention to step down. He said there that Prime
Minister Yasuo Fukuda "made a decision on an extremely big policy
changeover regarding our country's security policy that is
apparently a major issue for the policy talks." I doubted my ears.

Ozawa declared that Prime Minister Fukuda had promised two points:
1) Japan will not dispatch the Self-Defense Forces overseas unless
it is authorized by the United Nations, so Japan will not support
any specific country's military operations; and 2) establishing a
cooperative setup for the Liberal Democratic Party and the
Democratic Party of Japan is above everything else, so the prime
minister will not dwell on the passage of a new antiterror bill.
Only about the second point, Fukuda said Ozawa "probably had
something wrong in his understanding." Judging from this, there was
probably something to cause misunderstanding in their conversation.

Ozawa wrote for the November issue of Sekai magazine, in which he
developed his theory. I wonder if Prime Minister Fukuda gave way to
Ozawa's standpoint.

Ozawa asserted that SDF operations should strictly conform to
Article 9 of the Constitution. However, he also declared that Japan
should send the SDF to the International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) in Afghanistan if there is authorization from the UN. This
assertion lacks a logic that would bridge the SDF for Japan's
national defense and the SDF under the UN.

Japan needs to meet the international community's common sense.
Thinking in this way, the LDP government has tried to overinterpret
the Constitution, reinterpret it for Japan to participate in
collective self-defense, and revise it in the end.

Did Prime Minister Fukuda-the supreme leader of Japan and its
governing party-indicate that he would risk Japan's fortune and give
in to Ozawa's nonsensical idea? If the two had concurred, Japan

TOKYO 00005222 004 OF 010

would have been entirely tied down by UN resolutions that are
irresponsible, even when acting as an ally of the United States or
participating in multinational forces.

Even if the UN is an organization that fulfills respectable
functions, I wonder if both Prime Minister Fukuda and Ozawa
understand how much the SDF-which is not allowed to act like the
armed forces of ordinary countries that are UN members-will be able
to contribute with its participation in UN-led multinational
forces.

In the eyes of Washington, Ozawa is the one who will try to break
Japan's alliance with the US. Prime Minister Fukuda should be the
one Washington can rely on. In the meantime, Ambassador to the
United States Ryozo Kato addressed a gathering of Japanese and US
business leaders in Washington. Ambassador Kato there remarked that
the Japan-US relationship was in the "most difficult" state since he
became envoy to Washington in September 2001.

I do not want to say that Prime Minister Fukuda helped Ozawa worsen
Japan-US relations. However, I think that the feelings of President
Bush and other US government leaders toward Prime Minister Fukuda
might be different from their confidence in the past two prime
ministers, Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe.

I think that the keyword to express Prime Minister Fukuda's stance
is "dialogue." No one can be frontally against this expression.
However, this extremely corny expression is very dangerous as far as
diplomatic and security issues are concerned.

The right to dissolve the Diet is the most powerful card in the
prime minister's hands. Prime Minister Fukuda declared, however,
that he would use the card through "dialogue with the opposition
parties." Also, Prime Minister Fukuda easily told China that he
would not pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine. Last month, South Korean
President Roh Mun Hyun visited Pyongyang. Prime Minister Fukuda
entrusted the South Korean president with a message to Korean
Workers Party General Secretary Kim Jong Il. His message went: "The
issue of Japanese abductees must be resolved to improve relations
between Japan and North Korea. To that end, Japan is willing to hold
dialogue."

If Prime Minister Fukuda paves the way to allowing Japan to exercise
the right of collective self-defense, Japan will be a step closer to
the status of an ordinary country. Moreover, it will have diplomatic
implications on the countries concerned. Nevertheless, Prime
Minister Fukuda said he "must be fully cautious" about it. The
United States, an ally of Japan, does not want to hear anything like
that. China and North Korea welcome it, instead.

Former Prime Minister Abe tried to "break away from Japan's postwar
regime" as his goal and "promote values-oriented diplomacy" as his
strategy. And then, he tried to push for bilateral diplomacy as a
tactic. Prime Minister Fukuda only tries to avert a clash with
anyone. Such an attitude represents no goal, strategy, or tactic. It
is a setback with no principles.

I wonder if Japan-which has now awoken from the slumber of the
postwar regime-will again fall into a deep sleep under this
government. I must say this is a crisis. If not, what can I say?

(4) Editorial: Ruling, opposition parties should find common ground

TOKYO 00005222 005 OF 010

on a new refueling law

ASAHI (Page 3) (Full)
November 13, 2007

A bill enabling the Maritime Self-Defense Force to continue its
refueling activities in the Indian Ocean was adopted yesterday in a
House of Representatives committee yesterday. Today the bill will
likely be adopted in a Lower House plenary session. It will be then
sent to the House of Councillors, which the opposition controls.

It does not appear likely that the bill will obtain Diet approval in
the current session. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or
Minshuto), the largest opposition party in the Upper House, and
other opposition parties have strongly opposed the legislation. The
ruling bloc will then send the bill back to the Lower House after it
is voted down in the Upper House. All eyes are now on whether the
ruling coalition will readopt it with a two-thirds vote in the Lower
House.

Apparently there is a huge gap between the ruling and opposition
camps. The ruling camp has stressed that the MSDF refueling
operation is part of Japan's support for the fight against terrorism
by the international community and that Japan should not withdraw
from that international effort. The ruling coalition intends to ask
the DPJ whether it is qualified to hold the reins of government
since it is overly swayed by narrow party interests.

The main opposition party, meanwhile, has come up with a set of
counterproposals, centering on civilian assistance for Afghanistan,
toward the government-drafted bill. The DPJ plans to deliberate
first at the Upper House on its bill to abolish the Iraq Special
Measures Law, aiming to have Air Self-Defense Force troops pulled
out of Iraq. It apparently aims at putting off Diet approval of the
new refueling bill.

Also public opinion is divided. According to the results of an Asahi
Shimbun poll, 43 PERCENT responded that resumption of the MSDF
refueling operation was necessary, while 41 PERCENT said that it
was unnecessary. Fifty percent of the respondents said that the
suspension of the refueling mission would have a negative impact on
Japan.

The outcomes of the Asahi poll suggest that people think that Japan
should do some sort of international contribution, but they have yet
to determine that the refueling operation is what Japan should do.

After 9/11, many countries supported attacks on Afghanistan, which
provided shelter to Osama bin Laden, leader of the al-Qaeda
terrorist organization. We think Japan should participate in
international efforts.

The refueling mission might be one option. However, the Afghan
situation has worsened in the past six years. Suspicions remain that
the fuel provided by the MSDF to a US oilier in the Indian Ocean was
diverted for use in the Iraq war, uncovering allegations that the
Defense Ministry covered up the error in the underreport of the
amount of the fuel Japan provided. It is time for Japan to
reconsider how it should offer international contributions.

Can a new refueling law prevent diversion of the oil Japan provides?
Can civilian control of the military be secured without Diet

TOKYO 00005222 006 OF 010

approval? Without hammering out these points, it is premature for
the ruling coalition to take a vote on the bill in the Lower House.

We asserted in our editorial on Nov. 1 when the previous
Antiterrorism Law expired that Japan should consider its assistance
for Afghanistan and the refueling operation under the large
framework of the war on terror.

First, Japan should review its support for the Iraq war and mistakes
in overseas dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) before
considering support measures for Afghanistan based on the premise of
a complete pullout of the SDF from Iraq. Otherwise, Japan cannot
conduct a basic debate on what role it should play to contribute the
international community.

In that sense, we will pay attention to Diet debate on the bill to
scrap the Iraq Special Measures Law in the Upper House.

At the same time, we urge the ruling and opposition camps to come up
with concrete measures to support Afghanistan. We think the two
sides can find common ground since they share the view that Japan
should offer international contributions in some fashion. The ruling
and opposition camps should carry out constructive consultations on
policies although the idea of forming a grand coalition has
disappeared. If Japan's politics seeks only a grand coalition or
full-scale confrontation, it is too poor.

(5) Former Administrative Vice Defense Minister Moriya strongly
opposed CX engine contract without agency, reversing prevailing view
in ministry

MAINICHI (Top Play) (Full)
November 13, 2007

Yamada Yoko, a trading house specializing in military procurement,
and Nihon Mirise, established by former executive director of Yamada
Yoko, Motonobu Miyazaki (69), who was arrested on suspicion of
professional embezzlement, competed over an agency contract with a
US manufacturer over the procurement of the next-generation
transport aircraft, codenamed CX. When an opinion calling for a
direct contract with the manufacturer prevailed in the ministry
around June-July this year, Administrative Vice Defense Minister
Takemasa Moriya (63) fiercely opposed it, Mainichi Shimbun has
learned. Since it was already decided that Nihon Mirise would become
an agent, the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special
Investigation Department appears to be investigating whether the
case falls under provision of special treatment to the former
executive director.

According to an informed source, General Electric, the manufacturer
of the CX engine, this April notified the Defense Ministry that it
would change its Japanese agent from Yamada Yoko to Nihon Mirise,
starting on July 29. However, since Nihon Mirise was a company newly
established by Miyazaki last September, it had no delivery records.
As such, some in the ministry voiced concern about signing a
contract with such a company, saying that in case a delivery
contract was not executed, the company would have no financial basis
to pay penalties.

In response to such an opinion, then Defense Minister Kyuma told his
aides this June, "Why don't we start considering the possibility of
signing a direct contract?" Discussions to consider a direct contact

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