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Cablegate: Climate Change Next Steps: Brazil Will Inscribe Its Mitigation Actions by January 31

VZCZCXRO5127
RR RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHPB RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHBR #0015/01 0211931
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 211930Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0334
INFO ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000015

SIPDIS

AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PASS TO AMCONSUL RECIFE
AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO AMCONSUL ALMATY
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/21 TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG BR
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE NEXT STEPS: BRAZIL WILL INSCRIBE ITS MITIGATION ACTIONS BY JANUARY 31

REF: STATE 3352

CLASSIFIED BY: Lisa Kubiske, Charge d'Affaires, a.i., U.S. Department of State, Embassy Basilia; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

1. (C) SUMMARY.

The Government of Brazil (GOB) will inscribe the mitigation actions it previously announced under the Copenhagen Accord by January 31, 2010, according to both Ministry of External Relations' Under Secretary for Policy Vera Machado and Vice Minister of the Environment Izabella Teixeira. Brazil brought to the Conference of the Parties-15 (COP-15) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen its voluntary national goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 36.1 percent to 38.9 percent by 2020 compared with "business as usual". Subsequently, on December 29, 2009, Brazil enacted legislation codifying this voluntary national goal. Further, Environment Minister Carlos Minc will lead the Brazilian delegation to the upcoming meeting in New Delhi of the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China). Machado and Teixeira were vague about what they expected to happen there, except to say the BASIC group would discuss next steps after COP-15. Both Machado and Teixeira expressed uncertainty about what China would do about the Copenhagen Accord. END SUMMARY.

2. (C) Per reftel, Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Lisa Kubiske met on January 20 with the Ministry of External Relations' (MRE) Under Secretary for Policy Vera Machado and subsequently with Vice Minister of the Environment Izabella Teixeira to encourage the Government of Brazil (GOB) to inscribe its mitigation actions under the Copenhagen Accord by January 31. Machado said that there would be "no problem, no delay" with the GOB inscribing its previously announced voluntary national goal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. She explained that the MRE was concluding the interministerial procedures necessary for the GOB to inscribe its goal.

3. (C) While the GOB will inscribe its voluntary national goal, it is not giving the Copenhagen Accord a full embrace. Machado said, "We are not signing up, we are informing what our national commitments are." Fernando Lyrio, who is the Environment Ministry's International Advisor and who accompanied Teixeira in the meeting, said that there was no mandate out of COP-15. He added that the Copenhagen Accord is an informal one.

WHAT BRAZIL WILL INSCRIBE

4. (U) The GOB plans to inscribe its voluntary national goal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 36.1 percent to 38.9 percent by 2020 compared with "business as usual" (BAU) emissions. Dilma Rousseff, the head of the Presidency (Casa Civil), had announced this voluntary national goal on December 15 in Copenhagen. She identified the nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) that Brazil intended to take to achieve this goal: NAMAs 2020

PROJECTED REDUCTIONS vs. BAU (in millions of tons of CO2 equivalents) Reducing Deforestation Rate 669(24.7%) 1,084

-Amazon Biome by 80% (564)
-Cerrado Biome by 40% (104) Agriculture Practices 133 to 166(4.9-6.1%) 627
-Recuperation of Pastures (83 to 104)
-Integrated Farming-Ranching (18 to 22)
-Direct "No Till" Planting (16 to 20) -Biological Nitrogen Fixing (16 to 20) Energy Measures 166 to 207(6.1-7.7%) 901
-Energy Efficiency (12 to 15)
-Increased Biofuels Use (48 to 60)
-More Hydroelectric Power (79 to 99)
-Alternative Sources of Energy (Bioelectricity, Wind, etc.) (26 to 33) Other Measures 8 to 10(0.3-0.4%) 92
-Use of Sustainable Charcoal in Pig Iron/Steel Sector (8 to 10) TOTAL 975 to 1,052(36.1-38.9%) 2,703

5. (U) On December 29, 2009, President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva signed Law 12.187/2009 that converted the National Climate Change Policy into law. Importantly, Article 12 of that law incorporated the voluntary national goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through mitigation actions by 36.1 percent to 38.9 percent by 2020 compared with "business as usual" emissions. Teixeira said that the GOB was working out the details for implementing these NAMAs. In particular, the GOB was developing its first ever plan to combat deforestation in the savannah region (Cerrado), which constitutes the second biggest NAMA after reducing Amazon deforestation. These details should be unveiled in March as part of the newest version of the National Climate Change Plan.

INFLUENCING OTHERS TO ASSOCIATE AND INSCRIBE

6. (C) The Charge encouraged the GOB to urge other countries to associate with the Copenhagen Accord and, with respect to the other members of the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) group, to inscribe their mitigation actions. She pointed out that countries, such as Guatemala, might be amenable to leadership by Brazil. Machado offered a tepid, non-committal response. As for Brazil being able to influence China within the BASIC group, Machado laughed at the idea.

UPCOMING BASIC MEETING

7. (C) Both Machado and Teixeira were vague about what they expected out of the January 24 meeting of the BASIC group in New Delhi. They both reflected great pride on the central role the BASIC group played at COP-15. They saw the upcoming meeting as an opportunity for BASIC to set the path for where the climate change negotiations will go this year. Machado and Teixeira were uncertain about what China will do now.

8. (C) Environment Minister Carlos Minc will lead the Brazilian delegation to the New Delhi meeting of the BASIC group, and MRE's Director of the Environment Department, Amb. Luis Figueiredo Machado, will accompany him. (COMMENT. Having Minc lead the Brazilian delegation is probably a good development. He has been the most vocal member of Brazil's climate change team for large emerging countries to take more active measures to address climate change. He is more likely to push back if other BASIC countries seek to step backwards from what they committed to do in Copenhagen. END COMMENT.)

KUBISKE KUBISKE

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