2021 Prosperity Index Reveals “Sustained Attack On Personal Freedoms” Is Holding Back Prosperity In Asia-Pacific Region
Topline:
- The Legatum Institute’s 2021 Prosperity Index reveals that global “prosperity has plateaued for the second year running” as a result of weakening Freedom of Assembly and Freedom of Expression across all regions over the course of the past decade, with many of the greatest deteriorations in Asia-Pacific, MENA and Eastern Europe.
- This global problem is most prevalent in the Asia-Pacific region where “20 of the 29 countries saw their Freedom of Assembly deteriorate since 2011, with the most significant declines experienced in India, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, and the Philippines”. “India also experienced the greatest reduction in Freedom of Speech in the region, driven largely by an increase in the extent of government media censorship”.
- Even though “the core freedoms of speech and assembly have weakened across all regions of the world”, some of the “greatest deteriorations” can be found in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Globally, the report identifies the deteriorating of Freedom of Expression as a “key area of concern”, that has been driven by the growing threat to media freedom and “poses a major obstacle to global prosperity, weakening the social contract between governments and citizens by discouraging public debate and preventing the public from holding their leaders to account”.
Regional Highlights:
- New Zealand (8th) ranks most highly for overall prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Over the last decade, Nepal (114th) is one of the countries in Asia-Pacific where prosperity has improved the most, with primary school enrolment growing from 81% to 96%, and secondary school enrolment increasing from 47% to 62%.
- Afghanistan (163rd) is the least prosperous nation in the region, followed by Pakistan (138th), which is ranked 167th in the world for Natural Environment, 150th for Safety and Security, and 143rd for Education. Though improving, rates of primary and secondary school completion remain low in Pakistan, at 58% and 46% respectively.
- Over the past ten years, Papua New Guinea (128th) saw its prosperity deteriorate the most in the region. It has experienced a significant deterioration in its Health, with immunisation rates falling. The proportion of children receiving hepatitis immunisations has fallen from 66% in 2011 to just 35%, the lowest rate anywhere in the world.
The 2021 Legatum Prosperity
Index – Global Findings:
- Globally, the 2021 Legatum Prosperity Index reveals that “prosperity has plateaued for the second year running” and this is the result of weakening personal freedoms, specifically Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Assembly.
- The Index identifies that whilst “COVID-19 has undoubtedly had a short-term impact on prosperity", the pandemic has not been solely responsibly. “The past decade has seen the increasing suppression of the core liberties which underpin true prosperity.”
- The “key area of concern”, where this suppression is taking place, is the “ongoing deterioration in political accountability and freedom of speech and assembly in most regions of the world”. In the last decade 72% of all nations have seen a decline in freedom of speech.
- In 100 countries around the world both freedom of expression and freedom of assembly deteriorated over the last decade. This has significant implications for global prosperity.
The Regions:
- Overall prosperity in North America and Western Europe deteriorated between 2020 and 2021 and they have therefore “been the main contributors to the stalling of global prosperity.”
- Sub-Saharan Africa continues to see modest but consistent progress for the 11th year in a row, with 40 out of 49 countries seeing their levels of prosperity increase.
- The only other region that improved its overall prosperity was Eastern Europe, which has now experienced significant increases in its prosperity for the past five years.
Economic Quality and Employment:
- Between 2019 and 2021 the world saw a sharp fall in its “Economic Quality” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Economic Quality” reflects a decline in the ability of the global economy to “generate wealth sustainably and with the full engagement of its workforce.”
- This is illustrated by the fact that unemployment rates deteriorated across 158 countries between 2019 and 2020.
- The decline in “Economic Quality” was felt most keenly in the West, with the United States' unemployment rate more than doubling between 2019 and 2020; and Western Europe experiencing a contraction of -7.5% in GDP per capita.
- However, the report also notes that prior to the pandemic, the labour market varied considerably across the world as a result of labour force participation rates – in turn affecting levels of prosperity. The disparity seen globally “is driven by the limited number of women in work”. For instance, “only 24% of women participate in the labour market in MENA, compared to 70% in Western Europe.”
The Most Concerning Trend:
- Most importantly, the Index acknowledges that whilst the plateauing of prosperity has been caused — at least in part — by the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has also been driven by the “concerning erosion of many of the core features that underpin prosperity”.
This is explained by an overall stagnation in “Personal Freedom”, a global deterioration in standards of Governance, and a decline in the Natural Environment:
Freedom of speech and assembly
- Overall levels of “Personal Freedom” have “flatlined” since 2011. This measures individual rights, Freedom of Speech and Assembly, Absence of Legal Discrimination, and levels of Social Tolerance.
- The main reason for this flatlining is the “ongoing deterioration in Freedom of Speech and Assembly in most regions of the world”, particularly where Political Accountability has weakened.
- Freedom of Speech has seen a significant decline, with 72% of nations having experienced a deterioration in the decade since 2011, and 100 countries having seen a decline in both Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Assembly in the same time frame.
- The report notes that the restrictions to freedoms from COVID-19 lockdowns have actually “reinforced a longer-term trend” rather than emerging from nowhere. For instance, in the Asia-Pacific region alone, 20 out of 29 countries have seen a regression of their right to Freedom of Assembly since 2011.
- This is not a problem exclusive to the less developed nations. Despite both being in the top 20 overall for overall prosperity, Hong Kong ranked 113rd, and Singapore 133rd for Freedom of Assembly.
- The report further emphasises that “across the OECD, these foundations [of freedom of expression and assembly] are all weakening — and have been doing so steadily for the last decade”
- Since 2011 the three wealthiest regions on earth – North America, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe – have seen an average decrease in their freedom of speech.
Global standards of Governance
- “The nature of a country’s Governance has a material impact on its prosperity. The rule of law, strong institutions and regulatory quality contribute significantly to economic growth, as do competent governments that enact policy efficiently.”
- However, between 2011 and 2021 there has been a global “deterioration” in standards of Governance.
- In the last decade, Latin America and the Caribbean, MENA, North America, and Eastern Europe have all seen a deterioration in their quality of Governance. Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific have only seen minor improvements.
- Since 2018, out of 167 countries “116 [countries] have seen either a deterioration or no improvement” in their overall standards of Governance.
- The biggest reason for this global decline is because there has been a weakening of “Executive Constraints” since 2011. In this time 115 countries have seen power “become increasing centralised in the hands of governments”.
- Since 2018, 64 countries have seen a fall in levels of Political Accountability, with the regions of North America, MENA, and Eastern Europe seeing the biggest declines over the last decade.
- In Western Europe, between 2019 and 2020, nearly two thirds of countries (13 out of 20) saw a weakening in their overall quality of Governance.
A decline in the natural environment
- The natural environment has “a direct effect on people in their daily lives” as well as impacting on the “prosperity of future generations”
- Despite efforts in the last decade to bring about real change, the natural environment has “seen little improvement” since 2011. In that time, just three regions have seen an improvement in their natural environment and the impact it has on the daily lives of people – Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Eastern Europe.
- “Although the rate of emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx has decreased in North America and in both Western and Eastern Europe, the continued rise in other regions has meant that over the past decade, global emissions have been on the rise.”
- Since 2011, 81 countries have seen a deterioration in their Exposure to Air Pollution.
- The international efforts to address emissions “must be undertaken in a way that provides a pathway to prosperity for those nations that have not yet passed through their industrialisation phase.”
The Legatum Institute believes that prosperity is built when:
- Governments make
decisions in such a way that engenders trust and with
integrity, respecting the freedom of their citizens;
prosperous nations are ones where governments govern with
the agreement of the people, and where citizens take
responsibility.
- Economic decisions are
taken responsibly to sustain an enabling environment for
productive employment, sustained economic growth and
personal development.
- The principles of
personal responsibility and freedom go hand in hand;
citizens are free and order their lives taking
responsibility for their own families and
communities.
- People take care of their own physical health and mental wellbeing and healthcare is accessible to all; they do not make decisions that threaten the health of others.
Dr Stephen Brien, Director of Policy at the Legatum Institute, commented:
“Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have witnessed rapid prosperity improvements in nations undergoing enormous transition, ushering in a new era of freedom and opportunity. Since this point, many nations around the world have built prosperity on the firm foundations of the rule of law, open markets, respect for freedoms and personal responsibility. But the first warning lights are beginning to flash.
“The 2021 findings are showing that global prosperity has plateaued for the past two years, but this is not simply a result of the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Ongoing deteriorations in four key elements are causing the erosion of the core components of prosperous societies: Executive Constraints, Political Accountability, Freedom of Assembly and Association, and Freedom of Speech and Access to Information. This should concern us all.
“Suppression of the freedom of people to assemble and their freedom of speech is beginning to lead to limited and stunted prosperity. If we want to continue on the pathway from poverty to prosperity, leaders around the world have got to empower and free individuals to make the most of their talents. It is also vital to ensure that executives are held to account, so that those who govern to do according to the principles of the rule of law.
“Creating lasting pathways to prosperity requires that we do not take our core freedoms for granted. We squander them at our peril.”
About the Legatum Prosperity IndexTM
The Legatum Prosperity Index is used around the world by political leaders, policymakers, philanthropists, investors, academics, and journalists.
Now in its 15th year, the Index measures the prosperity in 167 countries representing over 99% of the world’s population. The combination of present-day analysis,
The Index shapes discussions in countries from all seven regions – with the findings helping shape national and international discussions around issues as diverse as investment, infrastructure, personal freedom, and healthcare.
It comprises three domains – Inclusive Societies, Open Economies, and Empowered People – which are underpinned by 12 pillars that in-turn consist of 67 different policy-focused elements.
A rich dataset of 300 individual country-level indicators, drawn from a wide range of over 50 international sources, provides the detailed measurement of national performance.
2021 ranking highlights
Top 10 ranked countries for overall prosperity | Bottom 10 ranked countries for overall prosperity | ||
1 | Denmark | 158 | Syria |
2 | Norway | 159 | Sudan |
3 | Sweden | 160 | Democratic Republic of Congo |
4 | Finland | 161 | Somalia |
5 | Switzerland | 162 | Eritrea |
6 | Netherlands | 163 | Afghanistan |
7 | Luxembourg | 164 | Chad |
8 | New Zealand | 165 | Yemen |
9 | Germany | 166 | Central African Republic |
10 | Iceland | 167 | South Sudan |