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Key budgetary points by HiFX

The key budgetary points are:

Economy in good shape, outlook positive; annual budget responsible and supportive
Fiscal path unchanged, reaching surplus taking longer, no fears of double dip deficit
Will not cut services and programmes to chase budget surplus
Govt surplus of NZD$176m in year to June 2016 vs prior forecast NZD$565m
Annual economic growth to average 2.8 percent over next four years
GDP growth seen at 3.1% in year to March 2016 vs prior view of 3.4%
Current account deficit peaking at 5.6% of GDP in year to March 2016
Low dairy prices headwind for economy, global uncertainties remain
NZD TWI expected to rise to 77.90 in Q1 2016 vs 75.82 currently
Dairy prices are forecast to recover in 2H 2015
Low inflation reducing tax take, but keeping down interest rates for longer
Expects up to NZD$2.5 bln available for modest tax cuts in 2017 if conditions allow
Annual budget commits NZD$790 mln to support low income families
Cuts retirement savings incentive, imposes new border security levy on travellers
No budget surplus until 2018 if export prices have major fall
Higher budget surpluses if domestic demand stronger than expected
Recent developments raise prospect of interest rate reductions in coming year
Net migration expected to peak at 57,000, before returning to 12,000 in 2017

The NZD is a little higher in immediate response.

For more information, please refer to this
link: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/2015.

Current indicative levels are:

NZDUSD 0.7315 / 0.7340

NZDAUD 0.9260 / 0.9285

NZDEUR 0.6575 / 0.6600

NZDGBP 0.5065 / 0.5090

NZDJPY 88.60 / 88.85


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