A low pressure system from the Tasman Sea is forecast to bring significant rain accumulations to many parts of Aotearoa this week. MetService has already issued several Heavy Rain Warnings and Watches associated with this system. Far away from our shores, the first tropical cyclone of the season has been named; Tropical Cyclone Ruby.

Eyes are on the tropics now, with TCWC Brisbane naming the first tropical cyclone of the season in the southwest Pacific yesterday afternoon (4pm Sunday NZDT). Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Ruby currently lies in the Coral Sea and is expected to intensify as it tracks southeast over New Caledonia tomorrow (Tuesday 14). The current forecast track maps are in reasonable agreement that Tropical Cyclone Ruby will pass offshore to the northeast of New Zealand on Friday.

MetService Meteorologist Amy Rossiter says, “This is an evolving situation, and our experts will be monitoring it closely as Tropical Cyclone Ruby approaches our area of responsibility later this week, so make sure you stay up to date with the relevant forecasts.”

Closer to home, we are feeling the tropical influence on our weather. Warm days and humid nights continue as a northerly flow pulls warm, moist sub-tropical air down over the country.

“These humid airmasses are quite dynamic and can hold a lot of moisture, therefore producing significant rainfall rates. We are already seeing pulses of heavy rain affecting the upper North Island,” Rossiter adds.

A complex low pressure system developing in this humid air in the Tasman Sea, is expected to affect the country from tomorrow, bringing further heavy rain and strong winds to many regions.

The heaviest rain is expected to affect the North Island and upper South Island and MetService has issued associated Severe Weather Warnings for Heavy Rain for Bay of Plenty, Mt Taranaki and northwest Nelson, with Severe Weather Watches for Heavy Rain for much of the central and upper North Island. Localised flooding and disruptions to the roading network are possible so factor in extra travel time if your moving through areas covered by the Severe Weather Forecasts.

Keep up to date with the latest forecast as the situation evolves and further areas may be added to the Warnings or Watches.

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