Covering period of Monday 13 - Friday 17 May

After an unusually cold week, Metservice is forecasting a return to more typically mild May temperatures as well as a rainy low pressure system coming from the Tasman Sea.

For today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday), we have a mix of clear and cloudy skies across the country with the slight chance of a passing shower. Patches of frost and fog are likely to return to sheltered parts of the central North Island, inland Buller, and the lower South Island tonight. Frost becomes less likely later in the week due to increased winds and overnight cloud cover, while daytime temperatures are forecast to reach the high teens in the North Island and the mid-teens in the South Island.

MetService meteorologist Dan Corrigan says, “The chances of clear skies this evening are generally looking promising for aurora seekers across the country, but the east coasts of both islands will have some cloud to contend with.”

A low pressure system currently over the Tasman Sea will arrive overnight into Wednesday morning, bringing widespread rain across the North Island and upper South Island as it moves eastwards throughout the day. Heavy Rain Watches have been issued for Tasman about and northwest of Motueka, and the eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty, lasting from Wednesday morning until Wednesday evening.

As this system moves away on Wednesday night, northerly winds give way to showery southwesterlies, but there will be plenty of sun in the gaps.

Looking ahead to Friday, a front from the south is forecast to move onto the lower South Island with strengthening northwesterly winds across the high country, and heavy rain for Fiordland and the ranges of southern Westland. Corrigan adds, “Over the week, we will be continually assessing the risk of any severe weather with Friday’s front, and will keep everyone informed about any Warnings or Watches that may be issued closer to the time as our confidence increases.”

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