24/10/2025
Covering period of Friday 24th - Monday 27th October

• Widespread wild weather on Thursday
• Settled weekend for many
• Further severe weather expected on Monday (Labour Day)

After a wet and wild week, holidaymakers will be glad to hear that settled conditions are forecast for much of the country as we head into the long weekend. The respite doesn’t last long, unfortunately, with another widespread severe weather event shaping up on Monday.

Thursday brought extreme weather to a number of places around the country, causing damage to infrastructure and properties, widespread power cuts, flooding and road closures. Urban areas in Wellington, southern Wairarapa, Canterbury, Otago, and Southland were slammed by gusts of 130-160km/h, while mountainous parts of southern Marlborough and Canterbury reached over 200km/h at their peak. Canterbury High Country saw the highest 24-hour rainfall accumulations, with several stations receiving over 200mm – Mueller Hut takes the cake with a whopping 245mm in 15 hours of rain (midnight to 3pm).

Wind and rain weren’t the only extreme conditions on Thursday, though, with temperature records in the North Island also toppling. Hastings hit 32.1°C at 3:30pm, smashing the record for the warmest October temperature recorded in the North Island, while Kaikoura and Whangārei both observed their highest October temperature on record, reaching 31.8°C and 26.3°C respectively.

Thankfully for those looking to get out and about this weekend, the outlook is sunnier for many parts of the country over the next few days. While Southland and the South Island’s west coast continue to see bands of rain sweeping through, the east coasts of both islands have a dry weekend on the cards, and the rest of the North Island should still see the sun between passing showers.

Westerly winds start to pick up on Sunday, with Central Hawke’s Bay and the Tararua District looking most likely to be affected by gales at this stage. MetService meteorologist Silvia Martino advises, “With warm, dry weather and strong winds forecast for the east coast of the country, it’s important to keep an eye on fire risk conditions when planning your activities for the weekend – open air fires, including fireworks and sky lanterns, are currently banned in Wellington, Canterbury, Marlborough and Hawke's Bay, and even mowing your lawn carries a risk of sparking a fire when conditions are right.”

It's also a busy weekend for events around the motu, with the Coastal Classic yacht race from Auckland to Russell having kicked off under sunny skies and a southwesterly breeze on Friday morning, and all eyes on Tauranga’s forecast for Sunday as the Black Caps take on England in the first ODI of the season in Aotearoa.

“Cricket fans will be pleased to hear that we should finally get a match finished, with any morning showers clearing out by the time the game gets underway,” Martino says.

We can’t get too comfortable, though, with another widespread severe weather event piling in on Monday for the end of the long weekend. Much of the country could see localised heavy rain, and areas from Northland all the way to Marlborough are at risk of severe northwest gales. Snow is also expected to reach unseasonably low levels for parts of Canterbury and Otago on Monday night, with possible impacts on travel and further stress on an electricity grid still playing catch-up after this week’s severe weather.

Martino suggests, “Holidaymakers planning to travel home on Monday should keep an eye on MetService’s Severe Weather Outlook for a heads-up of what’s on the way, as well as any Warnings and Watches that are issued closer to the time, and be prepared to adjust plans to avoid the worst of the weather.”

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

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