ANZ Commodity Prices - March 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand)
ANZ Commodity Prices - March 2000

:::::::::::::::NZD Index:::::::::World Price Index
:::::::::: Mom %::::
ann. %::::: mom. %::::ann. %
Oct-99::::: +3.1:::::::::+0.8:::::::::+0.8::::: +1.0
Nov-99::::: +3.9:::::::::+9.5:::::::::+3.8::::: +4.1
Dec-99::::: +2.9::::: +14.9:::::::::+2.3:::::+10.8
Jan-00::::: +0.4::::: +15.3:::::::::+1.4::::: +9.5
Feb-00::::: +5.4::::: +22.8:::::::::+2.2:::::+11.6
Mar-00::::: -0.9::::: +20.9:::::::::-0.7:::::+11.8

Source: DB Global Markets Research, ANZ Bank

Source: DB Global Markets Research, ANZ Bank

Key facts

The foreign currency price of New Zealand's commodity exports fell by 0.7% in March. Significant declines in the price of aluminium, lamb and butter account for the result. Most other commodities were stable, though apple prices were up very strongly and beef prices also increased. The year-on-year increase was 11.8%. The February index was revised up 1% on account of stronger fish prices.

The NZD price index fell by 0.9% in March. The year-on- year increase was 20.9%.

Comments

The outturn for the ANZ index is consistent with recent trends in the CBA index. The latter has suggested that the world price of New Zealand's commodity exports has been flat or down slightly in recent weeks.

If past relationships hold, the ANZ index suggests that a further rise in export prices has occurred in Q1/2000. The rise in export prices in the year to March may be marginally higher than incorporated in the RBNZ's March MPS inflation projections (the Bank expected growth of 8.5%).

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand

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