ANZ Commodity Prices - April 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand)
ANZ Commodity Prices - April 2000

ANZ Commodity Price Index data
:::::::::::::::::::: NZD Index::::::::::
World Price Index
::::::::::::::: mom %::::: ann. %::::: mom. %::::: ann. %
Oct-99:::::::::: +3.1:::::::::: +3.8:::::::::: +0.8::::::::::+1.0
Nov-99:::::::::: +3.9:::::::::: +9.5:::::::::: +3.8::::::::::+4.1
Dec-99:::::::::: +2.9::::::::::+14.9:::::::::: +2.3::::: +10.8
Jan-00:::::::::: +0.4::::::::::+15.3:::::::::: +1.4::::::::::+9.5
Feb-00:::::::::: +5.4::::::::::+22.7:::::::::: +2.1::::: +11.5
Mar-00:::::::::: +1.4::::::::::+23.6:::::::::: +1.4::::: +14.1
Apr-00:::::::::: -2.6::::::::::+21.4:::::::::: -1.2::::: +11.2
Source: DB Global Markets Research, ANZ Bank

Key facts

The foreign currency price of New Zealand's commodity exports fell by 1.2% in April. However, the originally recorded 0.7% decline for the previous month was significantly revised up to +1.4%.

The April weakness was caused by falling prices for lamb, aluminium, sawn timber and skins.

Relative to April 1999, commodity prices were up 11.2%.

In NZD terms, commodity prices fell by 2.5% in April, due to the weaker world prices and a temporary recovery in the NZD. April prices were up 21.4% on last year.

Comments

We consider the small setback for commodity prices in April to be a temporary development, with global trends suggesting that prices will continue to firm.

The ANZ commodity prices series is a reasonable indicator for the official Statistics NZ export price data (to be published on 8 June). The indicator points to a rise of around 3.0%, which compares to an estimate of zero included in yesterday's RBNZ forecasts. Together with the RBNZ's zero estimate for import prices in Q1 (we expect +2.6%), that confirms a significant upside risk to the RBNZ inflation forecasts from international price pressures.

Ulf Schoefisch. Chief Economist, New Zealand

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