External Migration and Housing Market (June 2002)

Data Flash (New Zealand)

External Migration and Housing Market (June 2002)

The monthly net inflow of migrants slowed to 2,930 in June, from 3,360 in May (figures are seasonally adjusted). While the number of arrivals continued to recover from the downward correction in April, that was more than offset by a rebound in departures. The latest figures are consistent with our view that, going forward, migration will make a significantly smaller contribution to demand growth than over the past year.

Slowing population growth is expected to reinforce the slowdown in the housing market. In May and June, seasonally adjusted turnover of existing homes fell by, in total, 5%, which can at least partly be attributed to the RBNZ's 100 bps increase in the cash rate since March. Consistent with the slowdown in house sales, it is likely that the house price inflation cycle has peaked as well.

Ulf Schoefisch, Chief Economist

***The attached research constitutes Deutsche Bank's proprietary information*** This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

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