Kiwibank’s Latest Report Reveals South Pulls Ahead As Regional Economic Divide Widens

• A new report from Kiwibank economists shows economic activity has improved across most of the motu - most regions have lifted, while three have gone backwards.
• The South Island continues to outperform the North, with Otago joining Southland as the country’s top-performing regions.
• National economic conditions are improving; the average score has lifted from 3 out of 10 to 4, but the recovery remains fragile. Wellington lifts to a 3, up from last year’s 2, but employment in the Capital is still down.

26 JULY 2025: The latest Annual Regional Note released by Kiwibank highlights a widening gap in regional economic performance, with the South Island continuing to outperform the North. While most regions have recorded gains, progress remains uneven.

The national average score has lifted from 3 to 4 out of 10. Southland and Otago lead with scores of 5, driven by a building boom and a rebound in tourism respectively. In contrast, Northland, Taranaki and Gisborne saw their scores decline. Wellington and Auckland have experienced modest improvements.

Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr commented: “The economic tide is turning. Most regions have seen at least some improvements, but the recovery is far from even. Interest rates have come down, which is starting to ease pressure, but many households and businesses are still doing it tough.”

SOUTH LEADS AS NORTH STRUGGLES

Southland retained its top score of 5, supported by sustained construction activity. Otago also rose to 5, fuelled by a recovery in international tourism and an 8% lift in employment - the strongest in the country. Canterbury remains stable, with housing and infrastructure continuing to provide momentum.

Northland, Taranaki and Gisborne all recorded declines in their regional scores. Taranaki saw the largest fall in employment nationwide at -8%. Gisborne saw the weakest housing market activity, and Northland reported a double-digit drop in residential building consents.

Manawatū-Whanganui was the most improved region, with increased business activity and infrastructure investment contributing to its uplift. Wellington rose from a score of 2 to 3, although housing and employment indicators remain soft. Auckland also lifted slightly, supported by population growth.

“The contrast between regions is becoming more pronounced - the further south you go, the better the business climate. Southland has held its top score, driven by construction activity, and Otago has caught up off the back of a strong rebound in tourism.”

“On the other side of the ledger, regions like Taranaki, Northland and Gisborne are going backwards. These regions are grappling with falling employment, softer housing markets and softer activity across the board.”

HOUSING AND LABOUR CONDITIONS STILL SOFT

Labour market conditions remain mixed. Employment growth has slowed across most regions, with job insecurity continuing to weigh on household confidence. Taranaki saw the sharpest decline, with employment down 8% over the year.

House price movements have been limited. Since the Reserve Bank began cutting rates, national house prices have risen just 0.5%. Transaction volumes are improving, but investor activity remains muted. Most regions are yet to see a convincing lift in property values.

“The housing market has remained largely locked in lateral moves. Since stabilising in early 2023, national house prices are up just 1.8%. Since the Reserve Bank began cutting rates in August, house prices have only lifted by half a percent - and in many regions, they’re still flat or falling.”

“Employment growth is also weak. Job insecurity is dampening household confidence, and that’s flowing through to the broader economy. The labour market lags behind the cycle, and we’re still feeling that drag.”

RETAIL STILL SUBDUED

Retail sales remain below their average levels over the past decade in most regions, with soft household confidence continuing to weigh on consumption. Wellington recorded the steepest annual decline at a -3.3%, while regions like Waikato, Northland and the Bay of Plenty saw a slight improvement on last year.

“A wave of mortgage refixing is due off after the fall of interest rate. The shift to lower repayments should help improve household budgets, boost consumption and support the housing market, but we’re not seeing that flow through yet. Consumers are still being cautious. They’re rebuilding balance sheets, not rushing to the shops just yet.”

“Momentum is more likely to show up closer to summer, once rate cuts are fully felt and confidence continues to rise,” concluded Kerr.

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