Chambers Of Commerce Survey Signals Divided Economic Sentiment Across New Zealand

CEOs say regions are holding steady, but rural areas show more confidence than urban centres.

More than 20 Chambers of Commerce across New Zealand have participated in the inaugural NZ Chambers of Commerce Business and Economy Survey, capturing business conditions and sentiment from Northland to Southland.

Collectively, these Chambers represent tens of thousands of businesses across all major sectors of the economy.

The survey paints a picture of a business community in a holding pattern — with CEOs describing a “Groundhog Day” of flat performance, cautious investment, and a wait for more stable conditions.

“The vast majority of businesses are waiting — not contracting, but not growing strongly either,” said Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber. “We’re seeing a sense of fatigue after several difficult years.”

While most businesses are holding steady, the results reveal a growing two-tier economy. Regions with a strong rural backbone like Canterbury, Southland, and Manawatū-Whanganui and sub region Queenstown Lakes are showing more optimism, buoyed by strong performance in agriculture, tourism, food production, manufacturing, and logistics. In contrast, urban centres like Auckland are underperforming, while some regional areas including Nelson-Tasman and Northland are also facing weak demand and cost pressures.

“We’re certainly seeing some cautious optimism in the Queenstown Lakes economy, fuelled by strong tourism growth in the South,” said Sharon Fifield, CEO of the Queenstown Business Chamber of Commerce. “This however comes with its challenges and the need for infrastructure to keep pace with growth as currently its holding back local productivity and confidence.”

This economic divergence is also sector-based. CEOs across many regions noted that retail, hospitality, and construction continue to struggle, facing reduced activity and ongoing cost pressures — particularly in urban centres.

“Auckland businesses are tired,” said Bridges. “Rising costs, soft demand, and uncertainty are weighing down confidence. “Everyone is hoping the strength we’re seeing in exports flows through to more regions of the economy.”

Many CEOs raised concerns about international instability, particularly around trade and export certainty. Several made direct reference to the “Trump effect” as a source of anxiety for global markets and local exporters.

“Exporters are watching global developments very closely,” said Patrick McKibbin, CEO of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce. “Geopolitical tensions are creating real nervousness, and the uncertainty is definitely influencing confidence here.”

What the numbers say:

• 60% of CEOs rated current business confidence in their region as moderate - 45% expect no change in the next six months.
• 58% rated New Zealand’s economic performance as moderate - 47% expect no change in the next six months.
• 58% rated business performance in their region as moderate - 53% expect no change in the next six months.
• 50% rated their region’s current economic conditions as moderate.
• 79% of businesses reported they are currently holding steady.
• 89% pointed to infrastructure projects as the most beneficial government action, while 61% highlighted the need for regulatory reform.
• A clear majority identified weak consumer demand and confidence as key pressures on business, with many also citing ongoing inflation, rising costs—particularly energy and insurance—and regulatory burden.

Despite the subdued mood, most CEOs said businesses are taking a long-term view — investing where they can to stay competitive, particularly in digital and operational improvements.

“Primary industries are leading the way in terms of recovery,” said Amanda Linsley, CEO of the Manawatū Business Chamber. “We’re seeing stronger performance in food production, agritech, and logistics — and that’s carrying through to other parts of the economy.”

There is broad consensus that rural industries remain the engine of regional and national growth. But many CEOs noted that while rural sectors are rebounding, the recovery has yet to take hold in urban regions and service-based industries.

Notes

The NZ Chambers network will repeat this survey every six months to monitor regional business sentiment and performance.

About the New Zealand Chambers of Commerce

The New Zealand Chambers of Commerce is a nationwide network representing regional Chambers and the thousands of businesses they support. Chambers advocate for strong local economies, sound policy, and a thriving business environment across all sectors.

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