Christmas Cheer Beginning For Retail Sector

Retail card spending figures for October 2025 show a small uplift for the retail sector as retailers head into their busiest time of year, Retail NZ Chief Executive Carolyn Young says.

Stats NZ’s latest Electronic Card Transactions shows total actual retail card spending in October increased by 0.8% year on year, while the seasonally adjusted numbers increased by 0.2%.

“It’s almost a relief to continue to see some positive news in retail. The actual monthly values* show that consumables (up 4.3%) and hospitality (up 0.7%) outshone durables (down -2.5%) and apparel (down -2.3%). So while there is some good news there, more is needed to share the benefits right across retail,” Ms Young says.

“As we head into the important Black Friday, Christmas and Boxing Day sales period, it’s going to be important to see continued improvements across the whole sector. We know businesses have been hanging in there waiting to see an improvement in the economy.”

With inflation currently at 3.0%, the actual card spend in October is below the current rate of inflation, she notes.

“The retail sector remains under significant strain, with businesses advising that they are absorbing as many cost increases as they can, working harder than ever as margins are being squeezed, creating significant challenges to remain open.

“We are still seeing liquidations and closures across the sector, although some regional areas are showing signs of improved trading on the back of strong dairy prices. We remain hopeful that the Reserve Bank’s recent OCR cut to 2.5% signals potential relief ahead. However, retailers are not noticing any immediate change in consumer spending,” Ms Young says.

*Note: Retailers focus on the actual card spend rather than the seasonally adjusted numbers due to the cyclical nature of the sector.

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