A Modest Lift In Labour Market Confidence, Ahead Of The Iran Conflict

Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index, March 2026

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) rose by 1.8 points to 95.6 in the March quarter. This was the highest reading in two years, though it remains in subdued territory. A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the outlook than those who are optimistic.

“The main driver of the lift in confidence was an improvement in perceptions about the availability of jobs,” said Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac. “This adds to the evidence of a pickup in businesses’ hiring intentions in recent months as the economy was starting to regain its footing.”

The survey found smaller gains in current and expected earnings growth, and in perceptions of job security over the year ahead.

“Confidence amongst private sector employees was up this quarter, with an increase of 7.5 points to 103.5,” noted Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director of McDermott Miller Limited. “In contrast, public sector employees’ confidence dipped slightly by 1.2 points to 95.6.”

“The survey results, taken on their own, would be consistent with the unemployment rate having reached its peak, and perhaps even begun falling, in the early part of this year,” said Mr Gordon.

“However, we note that this survey was held during the early days of the Iran conflict, when households (and employers for that matter) may not have been fully aware of the consequences for our economy. As such, it’s unclear whether this confidence will be maintained in the months ahead, in what is an uncertain and rapidly evolving situation.”

A description of the background and specifications of the survey are attached. The survey was conducted over 1-12 March, with a sample size of 1,550. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%.

Acknowledgement:

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac-McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Employment Confidence Survey and Index. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by the news media provided Westpac-McDermott Miller is acknowledged as the source.

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