NZ Investors Stay Resilient As US-Iran War Rattles Share Markets

• The January–March 2026 Sharesies Index shows investor confidence remained robust despite geopolitical shocks, with deposits outpacing withdrawals and diversification rather than selling

Wellington, New Zealand, 9 April 2026 — New Zealand retail investors demonstrated strong resilience during the first quarter of 2026, according to data from the January–March 2026 Sharesies Index — released as the wealth app surpassed one million customers for the first time. Despite the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and rising global oil prices, Sharesies customers continued to invest — depositing NZ$2.38 for every NZ$1 withdrawn at the start of January and maintaining a quarterly average net deposit ratio of 1.94.

The Sharesies Index — which tracks overall investor confidence on a scale from 0 (most concerned) to 100 (most confident) across one of Australasia’s largest retail investor datasets — opened the quarter at a four-year high of 64 in the Confident range before retreating to 45 (Balanced range) by the end of March.

Key findings: January–March 2026 Sharesies Index

• The Sharesies Index reached a four-year high of 64 (Confident range) in early February 2026, before declining to 45 (Balanced range) by the end of March.
• The US-Iran war and rising oil prices were the primary drivers of the late-quarter confidence retreat.
• Despite falling sentiment, investors remained active: the quarterly net deposit ratio averaged 1.94, up from 1.63 in the previous quarter.
• Investor behaviour shifted toward diversification — including NZ energy stocks and global ETFs — rather than withdrawal from markets.

What does the Sharesies Index measure?

The Sharesies Index is a quarterly confidence measure produced by Sharesies, a New Zealand-based fintech company and wealth app with over one million customers across New Zealand and Australia. The Index draws on anonymised data from one of the largest retail investor datasets in Australasia, ranking overall investor confidence from 0 (most concerned) to 100 (most confident).

Key inputs include: buy/sell ratios, deposit and withdrawal flows, investment in companies versus funds, volatility of the Sharesies Bundle (the 50 most owned investments on the platform), and the ratio of deposits into Save accounts versus investment accounts.

Deposits outstrip withdrawals despite market volatility

In January 2026 the net deposit ratio was 2.38 — meaning NZ$2.38 was deposited for every NZ$1 withdrawn to start the month. Even as sentiment cooled through February and March, investors maintained positive capital inflows. The net deposit ratio for the quarter averaged 1.94, up from 1.63 in the October–December 2025 quarter.

Jordan Cunningham, Head of Data & Analytics at Sharesies, said: “We can probably put this down to a combination of things. I think some investors are getting more comfortable with volatility, while others will be actively pursuing opportunities as some sectors drop in value.”

Some AI and tech stocks lose favour as investors diversify

The top five ranked funds and top five ranked companies in the Sharesies Bundle remained stable over the quarter. Smart US 500 ETF held the number-one fund position, while Air New Zealand retained the top company ranking despite the latter reporting a half-year net loss and increased aviation fuel costs.

Outside the top five, notable ranking shifts reflected a move away from AI and technology exposure:

• Meta and Palantir each dropped four places in the Sharesies Bundle rankings.
• Smart Total World ETF and Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF each rose six places, indicating a preference for broad global diversification.
• Contact Energy rose seven places and Genesis Energy rose 15 places — the largest movements recorded in the quarter.

Jordan Cunningham said: “Genesis Energy rose 15 points and Contact Energy 7 points. These shifts were primarily due to high retail investor engagement in capital raises by these companies, with over 7,500 Sharesies customers participating in each offer.”

The shift toward NZ gentailers — vertically integrated electricity generators and retailers — represents a diversification play away from US tech stocks.

Save-to-invest ratio: lower rates drive preference for investing over saving

The Sharesies Index’s Save to Invest ratio — which measures the relative preference for holding funds in Save accounts versus deploying them into investments — averaged 0.075 for the quarter, down from 0.084 in the previous quarter. A lower ratio indicates a stronger preference for investing over saving.

Jordan Cunningham said: “This preference is likely due to the lower interest rate environment. However, when market uncertainty peaked, such as in late February at the start of the US-Iran conflict, we did see a shift back towards the safety of cash.”

This pattern is consistent with the broader New Zealand macroeconomic context, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a lower Official Cash Rate environment, reducing the relative appeal of cash savings compared with equity markets.

What this means for New Zealand retail investors

The January–March 2026 Sharesies Index data suggests several significant trends for NZ retail investors and financial market observers:

• Increasing investor maturity: The continued positive net deposit ratio during a period of geopolitical stress suggests a maturing retail investor base that is less prone to panic selling.
• Diversification as a default response: Rather than withdrawing from markets, investors rotated between asset classes and geographies, reflecting a more sophisticated approach to risk management.
• Domestic defensives in demand: The strong performance of NZ energy stocks in investor rankings highlights the appeal of domestic, income-generating assets during global uncertainty.
• Interest rate sensitivity remains: While the preference for investing over saving is clear, the temporary cash rotation during peak volatility confirms that retail investors remain sensitive to short-term risk signals.

About the Sharesies Index

The Sharesies Index is a quarterly retail investor confidence measure published by Sharesies, a New Zealand-based fintech company. With over one million customers who have joined Sharesies, the Index captures insights from one of the largest retail investor datasets in Australasia.

Anonymised data from across Sharesies is used to rank overall investor confidence on a scale from 0 (most concerned) to 100 (most confident). Key inputs include the ratios of buying and selling of shares, deposits and withdrawals to and from savings and Invest accounts, investing in companies versus funds, the volatility of the Sharesies Bundle (the 50 most owned investments on Sharesies), and the ratio of depositing to Save accounts versus buying into investments.

The Sharesies Index is updated and released every three months in line with the financial quarter.

View the full January–March 2026 Sharesies Index report

About Sharesies

Sharesies is a New Zealand-based fintech company and wealth app that over one million New Zealanders and Australians have joined to build long-term wealth. Headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand, Sharesies is a certified B Corp operating across the investment, KiwiSaver, insurance, and financial advice sectors.

With over NZ$12 billion of platform assets, Sharesies offers investing in shares, Save accounts, KiwiSaver, car and pet insurance, wills and in coming weeks advice portfolios.

Sharesies Business works with over 600 private companies and 40% of NZX-listed companies to better understand and connect them with their retail investors. Services include capital raising, staff share schemes, and the investor relations tool Sharesies Open.

Website: sharesies.com

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