Fuel Crisis Scuppers Retail Optimism – Retail Radar Q4 2026

Retail NZ’s quarterly survey for Q1 2026 shows just how volatile the sector can be, with the current global fuel crisis turning the outlook for retailers from highly optimistic to largely pessimistic.

The latest Retail Radar report, released today, shows while retailers were buoyed by positive sales and rising consumer confidence at the end of 2025 and the first few months of 2026, the situation in the Middle East has put a sudden stop to that trend.

“While 51% of survey respondents were able to meet or exceed their targets from January to March 2026, just 33% believe they will be able to do so next quarter,” Retail NZ Chief Executive, Carolyn Young, says.

“Retailers have traditionally shown higher levels of optimism than their sales figures would suggest, so the fact 66% don’t expect to meet sales targets in the June quarter tells us the sector is bracing for a significant and sustained downturn.”

“We haven’t seen this level of pessimism in almost two years, despite the sector practically running on empty since the Covid-19 pandemic with very little in the way of a financial buffer,” Ms Young says.

While 61% of the Retail Radar survey respondents say they are confident of surviving the next 12 months, 29% are not certain they can, answering “really not sure - could go either way” – the highest that figure has been in over two years.

“We see that freight costs have become a major worry for retailers, with 79% citing that as a concern. While that still sits behind both inflation and cost-of-living as the two key concerns of our members (both at 85%), all of these factors are exacerbated by the huge increase in fuel costs that we’re seeing at the pump,” Ms Young says.

The survey also shows our members are anxious about the wide range of knock-on effects the Middle East conflict and fuel shortages could have. All areas Retail NZ polled on – foot traffic, product supply, consumer confidence, high street vitality and the wider economy – were ranked as a concern by at least 70% of respondents.

“Retail NZ members are clear that they would like to see more support from the Government in this period of economic uncertainty,” Ms Young says. “They would like to see encouragement for people to continue to work from the office, helping freight companies with the cost of fuel, and encouraging shoppers to buy local.”

You can download a copy of the Q1 2026 Retail Radar report here: https://retail.kiwi/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Retail-Radar-Q1-2026.pdf

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