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Is the Shape of our Government out of the hands of Voters?

Friday 19 September 2014

Media Release – For Immediate Release

Is the Shape of our Government out of the hands of Voters?

In the last stuff.co.nz / Ipsos Political Poll before Saturdays election, National is down 5.1% to 47.7% and Labour up 3.7% to 26.15%. These results are remarkably similar to the 2011 election where National received 47.3% of the vote and Labour 27.5%. It looks likely the final election outcome will be a result of party negotiations rather than a clear result from the voters.

If each party can retain its current seats this will deliver National with a combined 62 seat total in a 124 seat parliament.

NZ First could comfortably cross the 5% threshold at 6.6%. Align NZ First with Labour and the Greens and you have a block of 61 seats. With the remaining Internet-Mana seat most likely left out of both blocks.

Based on this outcome, National and its partners might just sneak through. However there is only one or two seats between a National lead versus a Labour lead Government. This once again puts Winston Peters and his NZ First party front and center as king maker.

This could all change if Conservatives can cross the line and boost Nationals ranks, thus avoiding the need for any agreement with NZ First. Our poll result has them falling short at 4.5%, however they are on the up and well within margin of error to achieve 5%.

So at the end of this roller coaster ride, the shape of our next government looks likely to be out of the hands of the voters and more likely to be decided upon at the negotiation table.

Stuff.co.nz works with market research partner Ipsos to canvas New Zealanders about their voting intentions and how they feel about the key issues facing the country.

This gives a representative view of voting sentiment with results released onstuff.co.nz and across Fairfax newspapers around the country. The stuff.co.nz / Ipsos political poll is established as one of the country’s most respected barometers of political sentiment.

This stuff.co.nz / Ipsos poll was conducted by telephone, between 13 September and 17 September, The sample was n=1,002. Party Vote percentages are only based on the 854 eligible and decided voters. Excluded from Party Vote are the 15% per cent of the sample who are undecided, do not intend to vote or are ineligible to do so.

Stuff is New Zealand's award-winning news and entertainment website, bringing together the vast resources of Fairfax New Zealand Ltd with several hundred journalists and photographers around the country to provide a single online 'publication'. Visit stuff.co.nz for more information.


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