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NEW POLL: NZ First Surges To Record High; Government Bloc Back To Governing Majority
The Government has seen a significant increase in support according to the first Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll taken since the announcement of the Government’s Fuel Security Plan.
This poll sees support for the National Party up 1.4 points compared to last month to 29.8%, NZ First up 3.9 points to 13.6%, and ACT up 1.5 points to 9.0%.
This is the highest level of support recorded for NZ First since the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll began in November 2021.
Labour is down 1.0 points to 33.4%, while the Greens are down 2.7 points to 7.8%, and Te Pāti Māori are down 0.6 points to 2.6%.
Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers’ Union’s website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/easter_26_poll
The only minor party to register this month was TOP on 2.6% (+0.7 points).
This month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll conducted in March 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucur_mar2026poll
The combined projected seats for the Government bloc increases 6 to 65. The combined seats for the Opposition bloc drops 6 to 55.
On these numbers, the Government bloc could comfortably form a Government.
National gains 1 seat to 37, ACT gains 1 seat to 11, and New Zealand First gains 4 seats to 17.
Labour drops 2 seats to 42, the Greens drop 3 seats to 10, and Te Pāti Māori drops 1 seat to 3.
Government support increases from 59 seats last month to 65 seats this month. This is the equal best result for the current Government since December 2024.
Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said:
“This poll shows a clear shift back towards the Government bloc with their best result since December 2024, driven by a record result for New Zealand First, and increases in support for both National and ACT.”
"But it not clear a clear cut thing. Even on these numbers, the ultimate decision on who could form a government rests with New Zealand First. In 2017 it backed the Labour/Green bloc and this poll demonstrates that could still be an option for them later this year."
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