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Cablegate: Playing with a Crystal Ball: Predicting Calderon's

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RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #4239/01 2131451
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011451Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2448
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/CDR USNORTHCOM
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MEXICO 004239

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN MX PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: PLAYING WITH A CRYSTAL BALL: PREDICTING CALDERON'S
FUTURE CABINET

1. (SBU) Summary: Even as AndrQs Manuel L"pez Obrador
continues to challenge the July 2 election results, Felipe
Calder"n is quietly planning his transition to power, leading
to speculation as to who will be invited to join his future
administration. Although we believe it is generally too
early to begin matching names with likely cabinet positions,
this cable is intended to provide background on nine persons
who seem well-positioned to take on significant roles in the
new administration, assuming CalderonQ,s election is
confirmed by the electoral tribunal. They consist of a
varied group, including members of Calder"n's inner circle,
old party hands from the PAN (and other parties), veteran
diplomats, and officials in former administrations. As
transition planning advances, we will provide background on
additional likely nominees and will be better placed to match
names with their likely positions. End summary.

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Josefina VAZQUEZ Mota
---------------------

2. (SBU) Campaign coordinator for Felipe Calder"n, Josefina
V zquez Mota has recently been named to Calder"nQ,s
transition team and will head negotiations with the PRI, PRD,
and other parties to begin garnering support for Calder"n's
proposed coalition government. She is considered among
Calderon's most trusted and influential advisors and is
often seen at his side.

3. (SBU) Born January 20, 1961 in Mexico City and a former
resident of the northern state of Chihuahua, Ms. V zquez is
an economist by training. In 2000, she was elected to the
Chamber of Deputies, where during her brief tenure, she
quickly distinguished herself as the party's effective
deputy economic coordinator. She served as Secretary of
Social Development in President Vicente FoX's cabinet from
December 2000 to January 2006. Although a surprise, last
minute choice for FoxQ,s cabinet, over time she gained
stature and strengthened her position in the administration
and in the PAN.

4. (SBU) Ms. V zquez earned her bachelor's degree in
economics at Iberoamerican University, and has also studied
at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM)
and at the Pan-American Institute of Upper-Level Business
Management. She has written widely for the Mexican press and
has spoken at numerous conferences in Mexico and abroad. She
describes herself as having battled gender discrimination in
the workplace, and throughout her career she has displayed a
particular concern for issues affecting Mexican women. She
is married and has three daughters. Her English ability is
unknown.

Francisco Javier RAMIREZ Acu$a
------------------------------

5. (U) Francisco Ram!rez is in the final stretch of his 6
year term as governor of Jalisco (2001-2007). Mr. Ram!rez
helped kick start Felipe Calder"n's presidential campaign in
the key PAN stronghold of Jalisco, site also of the closing
event in Calderon's campaign.

6. (U) Born April 22, 1952 in Jamay, Jalisco, Mr. Ram!rez
studied law at the University of Guadalajara and served two
terms as deputy in Jalisco's state legislature (1974-1977
and 1980-1983) and as Guadalajara's mayor from 1998-2000.
Press reports indicate that as governor, Mr. Ram!rez has a
reputation of governing in an aloof style, taking numerous
foreign junkets, and rarely interacting with the media. Mr.
Ram!rez studied law at the University of Guadalajara. His
English ability is unknown.

Arturo SARUKHAN Casamitjana
---------------------------

7. (U) Mr. Sarukhan is a career diplomat who was Mexican
consul general in New York from 2003 to February 2006. He
left his post early to join the Calder"n campaign as
International Affairs Advisor. He joined the Mexican Foreign
Service in 1994, although he previously held non-career
appointments in the Secretariat for Foreign Relations,
including as chief of staff for former Secretary of Foreign
Relations, Jorge Castaneda Gutman (2000-03). Previously he
served as an advisor to the Secretary of Foreign Relations
(1991-92) and as the SREQ,s Director for Inter-American

MEXICO 00004239 002 OF 004


Negotiation (1992-93). He served in the Mexican Embassy in
Washington (1993-98) where he held the position of Chief of
Staff to the Ambassador and later directed counternarcotics
and law enforcement issues.

8. (U) His education career includes BAs in International
Relations (1988) from the prestigious Colegio de Mexico and
in History from UNAM. A recipient of Fulbright and Ford
Foundation Fellow scholarships, Mr. Sarukhan received an MA
in U.S. Foreign Policy and International Economics from the
School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of the John
Hopkins University (1991). He has written widely on
international affairs and has taught classes at the
Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM). Mr.
Sarukhan has a special interest in globalization and its
implications for Mexico. He is fluent in English, Catalan,
and French. He reads Portuguese and Italian.

AndrQs ROZENTAL Gutman
----------------------

9. (U) Ambassador AndrQs Rozental currently serves as
President of the Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales
(COMEXI), Mexico's equivalent of the Council on Foreign
Relations, a position he has held since 2002. He also is a
member of the Board of Directors of Mittal Steel, Chairman of
the Board of Latinoamericana de Duty Free, and the President
of his own consulting firm, Rosental & Asociados.

10. (U) Ambassador Rozental had a long and distinguished
career in the Mexican Diplomatic Service. He held various
senior government and diplomatic posts including Ambassador
of Mexico to the United Kingdom (1995-1997), Sweden
(1983-1988), and Permanent Representative of Mexico to the
United Nations in Geneva. He has also served in various
capacities in Mexico's Foreign Ministry including as Deputy
Foreign Minister from 1988 to 1994 and as Director of North
American Affairs (1979-83). From 2000 to 2001, Ambassador
Rozental served as Ambassador-at-large and special envoy for
President Fox.

11. (U) Ambassador Rozental attended public high school in
New York, while his stepfather, a future foreign minister,
was posted at the United Nations. He studied at Haverford
College (Pennsylvania) although he did not graduate,
completing his undergraduate studies in international
relations at Mexico's Universidad de las AmQricas, and his
MA in International Law from the University of Pennsylvania.
He also did post-graduate studies in international economics
at the University of Bordeaux in France.

12. (U) The son of Russian immigrants, Ambassador Rozental
was born on April 27, 1945 in Mexico City. His wife Vivian,
also Mexican, graduated from Bryn Mawr College in
Pennsylvania. He is a part-time professor of international
relations at ITAM, has authored three books on Mexican
foreign policy and written numerous articles on international
affairs. He is the stepson of former Foreign Minister Jorge
Castaneda y Alvarez de la Rosa (1979-82) and the half-brother
of President Fox's first Foreign Minister, Jorge Castaneda
Gutman (2000-03). He and his wife have two grown daughters.

Agust!n CARSTENS
----------------

13. (U) Agust!n Carstens is currently Deputy Managing
Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and has
served in that position since August 2003. Prior to taking
up his current position, he was Mexico's Deputy Secretary of
Finance (2000-03), where he was responsible for economic
policy, Mexico's external and internal debt, and financial
sector supervision and legislation. From 1999-2000, he was
an IMF Executive Director. He previously held senior
positions in the Bank of Mexico. He was also an Alternate
Governor for Mexico at the InterAmerican Development Bank and
the World Bank.

14. (U) Born in 1958, Mr. Carstens received his BA in
Economics from ITAM in 1982, and his MA and Ph.D. in
Economics from the University of Chicago in 1983 and 1985.
He has been quoted as saying that in order to achieve faster
growth and poverty reduction, successful integration needs to
be accompanied by prudent macro-economic policies and a
deepening of structural reforms.

MEXICO 00004239 003 OF 004

15. (U) Mr. Carsten's has published articles in collections
edited by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, University of
London, OECD, IMF and the World Bank. He has also published
articles in such journals as Columbia Journal of World
Business and American Economic Review to name a few.

Germ n MARTINEZ Cazares
-----------------------

16. (U) Although Mr. Mart!nez did not work directly in
Calder"n's presidential campaign, he is a close advisor to
Calder"n and was selected to be part of his transition team.
He now serves as PAN Representative to Mexico's Federal
Electoral Institute (IFE). From 2003 to 2006, he served as a
federal Deputy from Michoacan. He also served as a Federal
Deputy from 1997-2000, when he presided over the Commission
of Population and Development.

17. (U) Born June 20, 1967 in Morelia, Michoacan, Mr.
Mart!nez received his law degree from Universidad La Salle in
Mexico City and is a candidate to get his Doctorate in
Constitutional Law from Universidad Complutense in Madrid,
Spain.

18. (U) Since his entry into the PAN in 1988, he has served
in numerous positions in the party such as coordinator for
PANQ,s legislative platform (2003-2006), and Director of
Research for the PAN party's National Executive Committee
(of which he is a member), and was a member of President
Vicente Fox's campaign committee during the 2000 election.

Luis TQLLEZ Kuenzler
--------------------

19. (U) As a lifelong PRIista and former member of Ernesto
Zedillo's cabinet, Luis TQllez's declaration of support for
Felipe Calder"n during the campaign caught the eye of the
Calder"n team as a possible future ally. He is currently
Managing Director of The Carlyle Group, one of the largest
private equity firms worldwide.

20. (SBU) Born October 13, 1958 in Mexico City, the
US-trained economist served as President Zedillo's Secretary
of Energy from 1997 to 2000 and as his Chief of Staff from
1994 to 1997. In the latter position, he played a prominent
role in negotiating a $50 billion rescue package from the
Clinton Administration and the IMF. As Under Secretary of
Planning at the Ministry of Agriculture in 1993, he was the
chief author of the government's controversial land tenure
reform, which encouraged privatization of communal farms.
Tellez also participated in NAFTA discussions on
agriculture-related issues. He is known as a mild-mannered
technocrat, direct and businesslike.

21. (U) Mr. TQllez received his BA in Economics from ITAM
University in the late 1970's; he later earned a law degree
from UNAM in 1980. In 1986, while on a Fulbright
scholarship, he earned a Ph.D. in economics at MIT. TQllez
is married to the former Consuelo Moralez Viesca. He speaks
English well.

Genaro BORREGO Estrada
----------------------

22. (SBU) Former PRI president (1992-1993), Genaro Borrego is
another former PRIista who has caught the eye of the Calder"n
team as a potential ally. Having openly opposed the
presidential candidacy of Roberto Madrazo and being
threatened for expulsion from the PRI for doing so, Genaro
Borrego voluntarily resigned from the PRI in June 2006 and
announced his support for Calder"n. His personal ties to the
PAN -- his father was a prominent PANista and his brother
recently won election as a federal Deputy for the PAN --
makes him a strong contender for appointment to the cabinet.

23. (SBU) Born February 28, 1949 in Zacatecas, Zacatecas, Mr.
Borrego was a federal senator representing his home state
from 2000 to 2006. In 2002, he gave a speech before the
Mexican Senate in which he strongly condemned a March 2002
U.S. Supreme Court decision that circumscribed the rights of
undocumented aliens in the U.S. Nevertheless, we have found
him accessible and friendly to U.S. officials.


MEXICO 00004239 004 OF 004


24. (SBU) Before his election to the Senate, he was Director
General of the Mexican Social Security Institute from 1993 to
2000. He also served as Governor of Zacatecas from
1986-1992, where he developed the reputation of being an
energetic reformer and was widely perceived as one of the
PRIQ,s rising stars.

25. (SBU) Mr. Borrego holds a degree in Industrial Relations
(1969) from Iberoamerican University. He is married to the
former Elizabeth Hoffman and has four children. He is very
proud of having trained as a bullfighter during his youth and
remains interested in the sport. He is well informed,
personable and persuasive. He speaks at least some English.

Roberto CAMPA Cifrian
---------------------

26. (U) As Nueva Alianza's 2006 presidential candidate,
Roberto Campa Cifri n received only 0.94% of the total vote,
although his party did succeed in electing candidates to the
Senate and Chamber of Deputies, securing its registration as
a party. Roberto Campa was the first of the presidential
candidates to publicly recognize Felipe Calder"n as the
apparent winner of the 2006 elections. He was a former
member of the PRI party but resigned in late 2005, after
openly opposing Roberto MadrazoQ,s presidential candidacy.

27. (SBU) He is a protQgQ of teacher's union leader Elba
Esther Gordillo. Although he is not known to be personally
close to Felipe Calderon, his relationship with Gordillo and
his position in the Nueva Alianza-- whose support Calderon
may need in forging a legislative coalition -- make him a
strong possibility for a senior level position in the
Calderon Administration.

28. (U) Born January 11, 1957 in Mexico City, he was elected
to the Mexico City Legislative Council in 1991, and was
elected to serve in the federal Chamber of Deputies in 1994
and 2003. From 1997 to 1999, he served as the head of the
Procuradur!a Federal de Consumidor (consumer protection
agency). He also has worked for his family's automobile
dealerships and real estate businesses. Mr. Campa holds a BA
in Law from An huac University, and has studied Economics at
ITAM, although he did not earn a degree there. He is married
with 4 daughters. His English ability is unknown.

Juan Camilo MOURI%O Terrazo
------------------------

29. (U) Recently selected to head Calder"n's transition
team, 34 year-old Juan Camilo Mouri$o has quickly risen in
the PAN party ranks, having served as Calder"n's Campaign
Vice Coordinator during the presidential campaign.

30. (U) Born in Campeche, Mr. Camilo was a Deputy at both the
state level (Campeche) and federal level (2000-2003); in the
latter capacity, he served on the Chamber's Energy
Commission. His 2003 campaign for Mayor of Campeche was
unsuccessful. During President Fox's presidential campaign,
he served as Regional Campaign Coordinator for Campeche,
Tabasco, Chiapas, Yucat n, and Quintana Roo. In 2004,
President Fox selected him to serve as Subsecretary of
Electriciy in the Secretaria de Energ!a. He holds a BA in
Economics from the University of Tampa in Florida and has
worked for energy companies.


Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity

GARZA

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