Cablegate: Se Turkey Flooding Puts Pm Erdogan in Hot Water

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON TU
SUBJECT: SE TURKEY FLOODING PUTS PM ERDOGAN IN HOT WATER

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1. (SBU) Summary: The worst flooding in Turkey since 1937 has
caused serious damage in the underdeveloped Southeast, killing
at least 40 people and leaving tens of thousands homeless.
While the GOT has mobilized local military assets and promised
assistance to the victims, PM Erdogan's hands-off approach has
angered many in the region and exposed him to criticism by
opposition parties. Even if the GOT regains its footing and
provides needed support to the victims, people in the
predominantly Kurdish SE are likely to see Erdogan's
characterization of the disaster as "exaggerated" as proof that
Ankara still views them as second-class citizens. End summary.

Deluge Batters Vulnerable SE
------------------------------

2. (U) Heavy rains across Turkey in the first week of November
have caused the worst flooding in the poor, mountainous and
predominantly Kurdish southeastern provinces of Diyarbakir,
Sanliurfa, Batman, Mardin, Siirt, Sirnak and Hakkari. Red
Crescent's website reported on November 8 that the death toll
from the flooding was 36, with 5760 people left homeless. The
main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) reported a death
toll of 40. Because of shoddy construction, ageing
infrastructure and overcrowding, natural disasters in this
region exact a heavier toll; many of those killed were in
vehicles that were swept off roads or on bridges that collapsed.

3. (SBU) The Turkish Red Crescent Headquarters in Ankara told us
that they sent food and shelter to the region, opened donation
accounts in banks, and that the situation was "under control."
Their office in Diyarbakir declined to comment on the current
situation in the SE, or to provide us with numbers of injured
and dead, referring us to their website instead.

4. (U) The Turkish military is assisting with search-and-rescue
teams and other logistical support and the central government is
using state buildings for shelter and providing food. In
addition, many municipalities controlled by the Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) have also established crisis
centers to cope with the emergency.

PM Erdogan: Callous or Misinformed?
---------------------------------------

5. (SBU) PM Erdogan has appeared disengaged from the crisis.
The government has sent ministerial delegations and MPs to the
region, but Erdogan did not speak publicly about the crisis
until Saturday, when he commented on the media coverage, stating
that "There are certain exaggerations, which sadden us. You
cannot stop such natural disasters even in the most developed
countries of the world." On November 7, Energy Minister Guler
and three other ministers were dispatched to the region to meet
with flood victims.

6. (SBU) In conversations with Consulate Adana, civic leaders in
the region have condemned the Prime Minister, saying that his
attitude would probably be different if his own relatives and
property had been affected. One contact in Silopi, a town on
the Iraqi border that lost 250 houses, characterized the PM's
statement as "nonsense." A contact in Diyarbakir said that,
although nobody is taking to the streets to protest, there is
deep anger about the PM's statement. Others noted that, if the
PM declared the region a disaster zone, the provinces would be
granted additional resources to cope with the aftermath of the
flood. One DTP official told us that the central government was
refusing to make the disaster declaration because it would make
funds available to DTP-controlled municipalities. Anatolian
News Agency reported on November 7 that the opposition CHP
introduced a bill declaring 13 SE cities disaster areas.

7. (SBU) Shahismail Bedirhanoglu, President of GUNSIAD, a group
representing businesses in the SE, said that the PM must have
received inaccurate information to have made a statement so at
odds with reality. He said that a coalition of 30 NGOs in
Diyarbakir is working to assess the damage and coordinate relief
activities. He said they estimate that 10,000 homes have been
washed away and 80,000 people are now homeless. A group of NGOs
has also called on the GOT to declare the region a disaster zone.

Comment
----------

8. (SBU) While the GOT's actions in response to the emergency
appear to be serious (particularly in light of the challenging
conditions in the region), its public presentation has provided
fuel to PM Erdogan's national opposition and angered locals who
expected more from Ankara. The PM's ill-advised comments and
his reluctance to declare the region a disaster zone will

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further erode trust between the GOT and Turkey's Kurds, many of
whom believe that Ankara regards them as second-class citizens.
GREEN

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