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Cablegate: Scenesetter for November 2-3 Visit to Washington

VZCZCXRO3015
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #3462/01 3020417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 290417Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2593
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003462

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS AF CAN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR NOVEMBER 2-3 VISIT TO WASHINGTON
OF CANADIAN AMBASSADOR TO AFGHANISTAN WILLIAM R. CROSBIE

REF: A. (A) KABUL 3068
B. (B) KABUL 3045
C. (C) KABUL 2292
D. (D) KABUL 2335

1. (SBU) Summary. Since 2002, Canadian forces have engaged
in the strategically important southern Afghan province of
Kandahar along side the United States. On August 21, 2009,
both countries signed "The Canada-U.S. Kandahar Coordination
Plan," which outlines the joint priorities and projects
within Kandahar and mechanisms for accomplishment. The Plan
lays out Canada's six priorities within Kandahar in six
areas: security; basic services; humanitarian assistance; the
Afghanistan/Pakistan border; national institutions and
reconciliation. In addition, Canada has three signature
projects to bolster these priorities: Dahla dam and
irrigation systems; polio eradication; and education. The
August 2009 deployment of the 5/2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team
to Kandahar allowed the Canadian Battle Group to reduce its
area of operational responsibility and withdraw forces from
the more conflict-prone districts. Canada has welcomed the
increased U.S. civilian and military presence in Kandahar,
but is also concerned that the U.S. not supplant Canada's
leadership in the province. End Summary.

BACKGROUND TO UNITY OF EFFORT
---------------------

2. (SBU) On August 21, the lead senior civilian and military
representatives from Canada and the United States in Kandahar
signed "The Canada-U.S. Kandahar Coordination Plan,"
outlining the unified effort of both countries in the
southern province of Kandahar. The KCP is intended to ensure
that Canada and the U.S. remain equal partners and to
forestall marginalization of Canada as the U.S. commitment
increases. Within the Plan, the overarching purpose of
Canadian and U.S. efforts is to strengthen Afghan ownership
of Kandahar's stabilization. The partnership will focus on
securing the population and creating an environment that
enables a sustainable, licit agriculture-based economy and an
increasingly effective, credible and representative
provincial and local government. In order to achieve the
unified agenda, the KCP created a Kandahar Senior Civilian
Team (KSCT), composed of the senior civilian and military
representatives of Canada and the U.S. within southern
Afghanistan, in order to provide strategic guidance and
coordination across the range of Canadian and U.S. activities
in Kandahar.

CURRENT CANADIAN PRIORITIES AND PROJECTS
---------------------------------

3. (SBU) In 2008, the Canadian Parliament passed a motion to
extend Canada's military presence in Kandahar to July 2011.
Subsequently, Canada announced its six top priorities for its
engagement in Afghanistan (similar to those of the USG) and
three signature projects. As noted in the Plan, these six
priorities are:

-- Building the security capacity of the ANSF and supporting
complementary efforts in areas of justice and corrections;
-- Strengthening the Kandahar Government's capacity to
deliver basic services and to promote job-oriented economic
growth;
-- Providing humanitarian assistance in keeping with
humanitarian principles and in support of extremely
vulnerable people, including refugees, internally displaced
persons, and returnees;
-- Enhancing the management and security of the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border;
-- Building Afghan institutions that are central to Canada,s
Kandahar priorities and support democratic processes such as
elections; and
-- Contributing to the Afghan-led political reconciliation
efforts aimed at weakening the insurgency and fostering a
sustainable peace.

4. (SBU) To fulfill its six top priorities outlined in the
KCP, Canada has undertaken to implement three signature
projects for Kandahar.

-- Dahla Dam and Irrigation System ) Canada has pledged
approximately 50 million Canadian Dollars (CAD)
(approximately 47.5 million USD) to provide necessary repairs
to the Dahla dam in order to provide a secure irrigation
water supply to the majority of the Kandahari population. In
turn, this will generate 10,000 seasonal jobs and will foster

KABUL 00003462 002 OF 003


provincial agriculture.

-- Polio Eradication ) Canada will invest as much as 60
million CAD (approximately 57 million USD) for polio
eradication, working closely with GIRoA and the international
community. The project aims to immunize an estimated seven
million Afghan children, including 350,000 in Kandahar.

-- Education ) To build upon its success in rolling out the
GIRoA's national education strategy in Kandahar, Canada has
pledged up to 12 million CAD (approximately 11.4 million USD)
to build, expand or repair fifty schools in key districts and
to build the capacity of the Ministry of Education to deliver
quality educational services to the province.


SHIFTING ROLES IN STRONG PARTNERSHIP
------------------------

5. (SBU) The August 2009 deployment of the 5/2 Stryker
Brigade Combat Team to Kandahar allowed the Canadian Battle
Group to reduce its area of operational responsibility and
withdraw forces from the more conflict-prone districts
(Reftel D). Canada has welcomed the increased U.S. civilian
and military presence in Kandahar, but is also concerned that
the U.S. not supplant Canada,s leadership role in the
province, particularly relating to assisting in the
development of Afghan governance.

6. (SBU) Some U.S. forces come under direct Canadian command,
including the 1-12 infantry Battalion and the 97th MPs.
These forces recently assumed primary responsibility for
security in Kandahar City. The 4/82 Airborne Brigade also
adds significant forces to the ANSF advisory role in
Kandahar.

7. (SBU) Despite a generally good partnership, differences in
U.S. and Canadian approaches have had an effect on operations
and objectives, particularly regarding distribution and
employment of resources. These difference, however, are
within the bounds of normal friction between coalition
partners:

-- The Stryker Brigade's main effort has been in Arghandab
District, a critical epicenter of the insurgency at the
northern gate of Kandahar City. However, Canada shifted its
stabilization resources from Arghandab to its own focus
districts south of the city. This has required rapid and
unanticipated adjustments on both the U.S. civilian and
military sides to ensure a successful transition from
clearing operations to early stabilization. We have made one
high priority request ) that Canada modify its intent to
commence the Dahla Dam project only in its priority
districts, and instead begin working secure areas of
Arghandab simultaneously when initial work begins in November
2009. The Representative of Canada in Kandahar (RoCK) has
agreed to take this under consideration.

-- Canada has stated its commitment to continue development
work following its reduction in forces in 2011.
Nevertheless, its phased project planning calls for future
reductions in funding. As a matter of prudence, the U.S.
will need to look at: 1) alternate funding for the Dahla Dam
project, which has a firm allocation of $60m by Canada for
its first phase, as overruns are probable and the cost of a
second phase is estimated to be $250m; 2) funding for
construction of the new $20m Weesh border crossing facility
near Spin Boldak; 3) future leadership of KPRT; and 4)
assignment of security responsibilities in light of the
projected withdrawal of Canadian forces in 2011.

POSSIBLE TOPICS FROM THE AMBASSADOR
------------------------------

8. (SBU) The Canadian Embassy in Kabul and Task Force
Kandahar have indicated that Ambassador Crosbie may raise the
following topics during his visit:

-- Elections: During the first round of elections, Canada's
focus was primarily on security around Kandahar and the
polling stations. Judging that it was primarily corruption
and not security that prevented a successful election, Canada
plans to shift its focus for the November 7 second-round
elections from security to an election observation mission.
Using civilian support from TF Kandahar and KPRT, Canada
plans to deploy observers to the symbolic and larger city
centers around the province. The Canadians would like to see

KABUL 00003462 003 OF 003


a joint U.S./Canada observation mission, and the Ambassador
is likely to ask about the U.S. position on such a mission.

-- Governance: Within the framework of governance in
Kandahar, the Canadian mission sees two main areas for
improvement. First, the Canadians plan to continue their
work with the line ministries at the federal level to better
connect and coordinate with the provincial level for the
purpose of timely and effective development. Second, with
the likely reelection of President Karzai, Kandahar Governor
Weesa will likely be replaced. The KPRT plans to seek a
strong, lasting relationship with Weesa,s replacement to
further the current policies and projects in place within the
province.

-- Ahmed Wali Karzai: Given his suspected ties to
narco-trafficking (and possible militant activities), the
Canadians are looking for a way forward in their dealings
with Ahmed Wali Karzai (AWK), President Karzai's brother and
Kandahar Provincial Council Chairman. The Canadians believe
the ideal situation would be to have him removed from power,
but given his status as a strong power player within
Kandahar, the Canadian Ambassador is likely to ask for the
U.S. to lead on the issue.

-- Reintegration: The Canadian Mission feels strongly that
reintegration of militants willing to lay down weapons and
reenter society by respecting the writ of the government
should be an Afghan-led process. The Canadians believe this
is the only way for a successful reintegration, and they hope
to further solidify this notion with the United States in
Kandahar.

-- COIN Efforts: Reportedly, the Canadian mission feels that
it was unfairly lumped into a group of ISAF countries not
fully participating in the COIN process in the McChrystal
report. The Ambassador will likely reinforce Canada,s
commitment to the COIN effort in Afghanistan. Canada plans
to increase its civilian police mentoring efforts and
expanding its "key village approach" to bolster the areas
around Kandahar City. From Canada's standpoint, the work
between the Canadian and U.S. militaries is seamless, and
this same notion goes for every area where Canadian and
American personnel are co-located.

-- Detainees: The Canadian mission views the "96-hour Rule"
for the holding of detainees as a guideline and not a "hard
and fast" rule, noting that the Canadian Government will hold
any individual believed to be a viable threat until a
thorough investigation can be conducted, regardless of
whether this takes longer than 96 hours. The Canadians are
looking for a coordinated approach to the detainee issue and
hope to work with the U.K. and the U.S. on developing a
comprehensive joint plan in this area.

9. (U) This message was drafted by the Regional Platform at
Regional Command-South and Embassy Kabul.
EIKENBERRY

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