15 May 2015
Cuts both ways – ASB lowers milk price forecast and predicts OCR to drop
ASB cuts its 2015/16 milk price forecast
At the same time, ASB predicts OCR cuts later this year
NZ dollar predicted to hit US 67 cents by year-end
Dairy prices are low and likely to stay that way a while longer, according to the latest ASB Farmshed Economics Report.
“After a drought-driven false dawn earlier this year, prices are at their lowest in five years,” says ASB’s Rural Economist Nathan Penny. “This is driven by a potent mix of domestic production getting a second wind and demand remaining weak. However, we still expect production to slow down to the point where demand can catch up, just later than previously expected.”
“As a result, we have cut our forecast for the 2015/16 season to $5.70/kg as well as adopting Fonterra’s lowered 2014/15 milk price forecast of $4.50/kg.”
“On the other hand, we now expect the RBNZ to cut the OCR this year, most likely by 25bp in each of September and October,” says Mr Penny.
“The lower interest rate outlook has let some of the hot air out of the NZD, and it has started to fall against most major currencies. Also in the end, the NZD never reached its threatened parity with the AUD. If we do see the NZD weaken over the year, the lower NZD will support farmers’ export returns in NZ dollars and make NZ products more competitive in international markets.”