Free Press

ACT’s regular bulletin

Taking Tamaki Too Seriously
In this week’s tete-a-tete with Labour’s Jacinda Ardern, David Seymour argues the press are taking Brian Tamaki’s recent comments far more seriously than they deserve. “To the young people out there: you have the right to be who you are, proudly – and the most effective weapon against people who say otherwise is laughter. Tamaki’s supporters thrive on the idea that the whole world is against him, but laughing at him? Ha!” The full piece is here.

Tax Cuts
The National Party have made hay from reassuring people there will be tax cuts in spite of last week’s earthquakes. With the Government expecting surpluses adding up to $17 billion over the coming four years, the Kaikoura earthquake was never going to put tax cuts in doubt (the entire public and private bill for Christchurch was about $20 billion, Kaikoura will be far less).

Promises, Promises
Anybody can promise to cut taxes, no government has successfully delivered them in 20 years, without ACT’s support. Needless to say ACT is the strongest party on tax and will be campaigning on people who work, save, and invest getting to keep more of their money. Some idea of what a tax cut package might look like is here.

Student Allowance Crack Down
Some students get a living allowance that they have to repay after graduation, others get one that they never have to repay. Which one you get depends on whether your parents earn more than $84,000 (combined) at the time you study. The Government is promising to crack down on fraudsters who get the non-repayable living allowance despite their parents earning too much.

Wait, What?
If you found it difficult to follow the previous paragraph it is because the policy makes no sense. If your parents earn below $84,000 you get a Student Allowance with no strings attached. If they earn over $84,000 you are not eligible for a Student Allowance but you can borrow for living costs against your student loan then repay it. Surely your parents' income while studying doesn’t affect your ability to repay? It’s nuts.

The Most Strategic Election Ever
The Mt Roskill by-election, where the Greens are helping Labour by not standing, marks the beginning of a new phase in politics. Labour and the Greens will be aggressively strategic in key electorates, making it nearly impossible for National to win Auckland Central. The Greens will stand down in Wellington Central to protect Labour’s Grant Robertson from a new candidate and Auckland Central-style gentrification that is gradually turning the electorate blue.

Shaw to Stand in Ohariu
Free Press predicts Labour will pull out of the Ohariu electorate next year, and James Shaw will be the Greens’ candidate. We know this from watching last election’s Ohariu candidates. Labour’s Virginia Andersen has opted for a suicide mission against Chris Bishop in Hutt South because there will be no Labour candidate in Ohariu. Gareth Hughes has gone all the way to stand for the Greens in East Coast. It is impossible to tell who would win the three-way Ohariu dogfight between Shaw, Brett Hudson, and Peter Dunne, but with a majority of 730 votes, Peter Dunne’s hold on parliament must feel tenuous.

And Epsom?
Free Press understands that David Seymour’s team is preparing for a straight run-off with National’s candidate in Epsom. Labour and the Greens will both pull their candidates from the Epsom electorate, hoping their voters will vote National to unseat Seymour. It will be strongest possible signal to Epsom voters on both sides that strategic voting is not only ok but expected, and left wing voters are outnumbered by more than two-to-one in the electorate.

What Does it all Mean?
Not much. Peter Dunne losing Ohariu will mean one less seat on the right, or it might not. Dunne, a former Labour Minster, could bat either way, and his seat creates an overhang so in a sense it is only half a seat. As usual the balance of parliament will be decided by the party vote. If you’d like to help ACT’s campaign in 2017, please see the links below.

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