Opinions divided on New Zealand's energy future

Ministry of Economic Development (MED) forecasts about the energy sources and fuels that will power New Zealand into the future were aired at the Do Something! forum sponsored by HumanFM at Victoria University last night – but opinions on the basis for and realistic achievability of future scenarios were divided.

Many participants challenged the MED’s heavy reliance on optimistic projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) – primarily because of growing evidence that we are now well and truly in a peak oil era and need to be planning for a wider set of scenarios to change our economic and private ways of life.

Many people were also disturbed at the lack of big-picture thinking on electricity generation issues and questions, such as whether New Zealand would be better off connecting Manapouri to the national grid rather than having it provide extremely cheap electricity to Rio Tinto’s aluminium smelter, or when the Huntly power station will be taken out of commission given it is past its retirement date.

In a presentation to the forum, Mark Walkington of the MED’s Energy Information and Modelling Group talked about three scenarios for future energy use in New Zealand that are cross-referenced to IEA projections:

o doing nothing (business as usual)

o a scenario based on New Zealand discovering more oil and gas

o a scenario based on New Zealand reducing its reliance on imported oil.

The scenario of reducing our dependence on imported oil, titled Changing Gear by MED, calls for a more efficient transport fleet, the uptake of electric vehicles and the establishment of local biofuel production, but even this ‘best case’ scenario would take until 2040 to contribute to a decrease in energy sector greenhouse gas emissions to below 1990 levels.

Energy researcher Doug Clover criticized the “tyranny” imposed by the business as usual scenario because of the assumption that the only model for economic growth is one that is dependent on ever increasing growth in consumption of non-renewable energy. He called for more “out of the box thinking” by Government.

He noted that New Zealand’s continued obsession with a “market madness” in the supply-side market for electricity reflected a flawed set of electricity reforms that had gone off the rails in the 1990s when generators of electricity were able to also act as retailers (gen-tailers).

“The missed opportunity that New Zealand has never planned for adequately – and this includes the most recent changes in the sector – is the management of the demand-side of electricity consumption. Managing demand and giving more power to the public to do something to manage their own demand is an area where significant gains can be made,” said Doug Clover.

Forum speaker Sarah Free, of Wellington’s Home Energy Advice service, reinforced the importance of focusing on domestic energy use by providing a set of practical tips at the forum on getting more value from affordable home energy options such as improved curtains and new insulation.

The Do Something! returns 7.30pm, Tuesday 1 June at Ramsey House, 8 Kelburn Pde, Wellington with the topic “Undermining Democracy?”, looking at the amount of legislation being passed under urgency, the Auckland Super City and Environment Canterbury’s sacking. Speakers include Polly Higbee of Victoria University’s Law School, Green MP David Clendon and former chair of Environment Canterbury and Speaker of the House, Sir Kerry Burke.

Presentations, audio and video interviews with the speakers for all Do Something! forums can be found at www.dosomething.org.nz

ENDS

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