Let us stop being 25 years behind the rest of the world

By Sridhar Ekambaram

New Zealand Transport Agency has inadvertently started a new debate on transport and road issues by asking Wellington City Council to clarify its position on roading policy not just for Wellington but for the whole of New Zealand.

Aside from bullying the Council, NZTA has taken an extreme step in involving itself in local politics. This issue has provided ammunition to the pro-road lobbyists to further their interests backed by councillors opposed to Mayor Wade-Brown’s policies.

Unfortunately, NZTA and pro-road councillors both have demonstrated they are still 25 years behind the rest of the world. After World War II, Western countries led by USA and Britain invested heavily in roads for passenger and freight transport, intending to fuel economic growth. That was when the USA had power over the world markets and could dictate crude oil prices to its advantage. Now faced with competition from BRIC countries, crude oil prices are sky-rocketing and the same road infrastructures have now become white elephants, unable to lead economic recovery.

There are three issues to be considered: continued supply of oil and its price; alternate sources of fuel; and preparing for future.

There is no reason to doubt oil will last forever. Predictions of its availability started in the 1970s by geologists working for oil giants. Current estimates are for every barrel of oil discovered, the world consumes three. We are running out of oil in most places in the world . Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of oil, has recently signalled it might be running out of oil, by announcing plans to invest in alternate sources of energy. Rising oil prices are affecting even US motorists who are scaling down their use of cars.

Any new discoveries of oil are most likely to be gobbled up by emerging economies India and China. That includes any oil reserves discovered in New Zealand, leaving us high and dry.

Alternate sources of fuel have so far eluded mass production due to higher manufacturing costs and ethical issues over land use regarding food production for fuel and food. But all indications are alternate fuels are not going to be available as extensively as oil.

This brings us to the third issue – how prepared are we for a future with no oil and short supply of alternate fuel? This is where New Zealand stands out being 25 years behind the rest of the world. We still want roads and cars to be given priority, exactly what developed countries did quarter of a century ago. The troubling paradox is the same developed countries, especially in Europe, have been investing in alternate modes of transport – public transport, walking and cycling - and reducing dependence on oil for the last 25 years. Today, apart from US, these countries are in a much better position to deal with life without cheap oil.

Our bureaucrats continue to think in terms of roads for cars. Worse, Wellington’s councillors are also thinking the same way. Together, they are trying to lead the city and country to a situation where 15 years from today, when all the proposed new roads will be ready, oil prices will be at its highest, people will want to leave their cars behind and opt for alternate ways of getting around, and New Zealand will be unprepared to cater to the new transport requirements.

It is amazing that this government and NZTA is willing to put forward billions on new roads that are known to have returns of just dollar to dollar at its best, but cite tight economic conditions when it comes to light rail and other public transport infrastructure that require less capital and have higher returns on investment.

The question arises, when is our government, bureaucrats and councillors going to come out of their cocoon and start taking New Zealand ahead of current times. Mayors Celia Wade-Brown and Len Brown have shown leadership in changing our future when it comes to transport choices. Pro-road councillors in Auckland and Wellington need to realise they are heading in the wrong direction and instead work with their mayors to change the shape of these cities. Nothing stops them from renegotiating local transport priorities with NZTA and transport minister Steven Joyce.

Unfortunately, there is a lack of political will among those councillors and it is time residents of Auckland and Wellington decided on the future course of the city and its makeup of councillors.

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