New Taxpayers' Union–Curia polling shows a plurality of voters prefer a National/ACT/NZ First coalition over a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori alternative, with NZ First's own base backing the right bloc nearly unanimously.

A nationwide poll of 1,027 New Zealanders asked which of two three-party coalitions they would prefer to form the next government:

• Nat/ACT/NZF: 45 percent
• Lab/Gre/TPM: 39 percent
• Unsure: 16 percent

The 16 percent undecided is higher than the typical undecided rate on party vote.

Coalition preference tracks tightly with the status quo:

• ACT: 98 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• National: 86 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• NZ First: 83 percent Nat/ACT/NZF
• Te Pāti Māori: 95 percent Lab/Gre/TPM
• Greens: 93 percent Lab/Gre/TPM
• Labour: 88 percent Lab/Gre/TPM

On current seat projections the right bloc holds 65 seats to the left's 55, meaning neither side can govern without NZ First's 17, and 83 percent of NZ First voters want Peters to stay with National and ACT.

Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Tory Relf, said:

"In an MMP environment the coalition question matters as much as any single party's poll number. Voters aren't just picking a party, they are picking a government, and a plurality want a centre-right one."

"NZ First voters have sent an unmistakable signal. Eighty-three percent want Winston Peters back on the right side of the aisle. Only two percent want him to switch. Four in five NZ First voters expect Peters to re-elect this coalition, not swap it out."

"For Labour, that presents a real challenge. Hipkins may be narrowing the party-vote gap, but turning that into a credible alternative government is a different task altogether."

"The number parties will be eyeing up is the 16 percent undecided on coalition preference. That is a larger pool than any minor party commands. Whichever bloc makes the more compelling case will pick them up, and with them, the balance of power."

Notes:

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Wednesday 01 April to Thursday 02 April 2026. The median response was collected on Wednesday 02 April 2026.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.

A random selection of 7,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

© Scoop Media