Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


National Bank Business Outlook Survey

Data Flash (New Zealand)NBNZ Business Survey - March 2000

National Bank Business Outlook Survey
Mar-00 Feb-00
Business Confidence +27 +21 +21
Activity Outlook +37 +38 +35
Exports +40 +43 +38
Investment +16 +16 +11
Capacity Utilisation +30 +25 +23
Profits +21 +18 +17
Pricing Intentions +30 +26 +24
Inflation Expectations +2.5 +2.4 +2.6
Source: DB Global Markets Research, NBNZ

Key facts

* General business confidence increased to +27% (net respondents) in
March. A key driver was a sharp improvement in optimism in the
agricultural sector - up to +35 from +11 in February. This was only
partly offset by a decline in confidence in the construction sector
(down to +21 from +28 in February).

* Firms' optimism about their own prospects over the year ahead was
virtually unchanged, with +37% expecting good times ahead. Optimism
regarding prospects for exports and investment was down marginally.
However, expectations regarding employment intentions and
profitability were up slightly.

* Significantly, the net share of businesses who intend to raise
prices over coming months has risen to record levels. A net 30% of
firms expect to increase prices, up from 26% in the February survey.
Expectations for CPI inflation over the next year increased to 2.5%
from 2.4% in February.


The survey is consistent with our forecast of GDP growth of around
4% over the next year, driven by strong export growth and solid
levels of investment and consumer demand. Pricing intentions
continue to be consistent with rising cost pressure associated with
a tightening labour market, higher energy prices and increases in
import prices due to higher commodity prices and the low NZD. The
RBNZ will have taken little comfort from this survey which adds
incrementally to the growing weight of evidence suggesting that its
March MPS medium-term inflation projections were too optimistic.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand (64) 9 351 1376


© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


Real Estate: Foreign Buyers Ban Passes Third Reading

The Bill to put in place the Government’s policy of banning overseas buyers of existing homes has passed its third and final reading in the House. More>>


Nine Merger: Fairfax Slashes Value Of NZ Business

Fairfax Media Group more than halved the value of its Kiwi assets, attaching just A$40 million to mastheads that were once the core of a billion dollar investment. More>>

Collecting Scalpers: Commerce Commission To Sue Viagogo

The Commission will claim that Viagogo made false or misleading representations: • that it was an “official” seller, when it was not • that tickets were limited or about to sell out • that consumers were “guaranteed” to receive valid tickets for their event • about the price of tickets... More>>


Price Of Cheese: Fonterra CEO Goes Early After Milk Price Trimmed

Aug. 15 (BusinessDesk) - Fonterra Cooperative Group chief executive Theo Spierings is leaving the role early after the world's biggest dairy exporter lowered its farmgate payout and trimmed its dividend to retain cash. More>>