Winter began on a settled note, but this will give way to an active weather system from the northwest by the end of the weekend. MetService predicts a switch from calm and mostly dry conditions to windy, warm, wet weather starting Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday.

A ridge of high pressure has prevailed over the country this week, leading to a relatively dry start to June for many regions. The fly in the ointment is a weak weather system bringing light rain and showers to the lower and western South Island today (Thursday). On Friday a weather system north of the country drifts close to Northland, bringing rainy periods, while the odd shower could make it to Auckland and Coromandel as well. Once these systems pass, the high-pressure ridge will reestablish itself into the weekend.

However, that all changes once Sunday afternoon rolls around. MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane provides more details: “A weather system arrives from the northwest, bringing warm, moist air to the country, with the risk of severe weather. All the North Island and much of the South Island are expected to experience at least some wet weather as it moves across. Mountainous areas are likely to see the heaviest rain, but other regions could also be affected. It would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast as the time comes closer.”

The approaching system will also bring strong northerly winds. Areas such as Wellington, Marlborough, inland Canterbury, and the mountainous regions of the North Island could experience the strongest winds on Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will also reflect the change. Sunday night into Monday morning will see many places with double-digit minimum temperatures, significantly higher than the seasonal norm. “Daytime temperatures will also feel unseasonably warm. Napier and Hastings are projected to reach 22°C on Monday, due largely to strong northwesterly winds rather than abundant sunshine. However, there’ll be moments of sunshine for much of Aotearoa New Zealand before then,” Makgabutlane comments.

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