Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


CoreLogic - 2019 Best of the Best NZ (BoB) Report

CoreLogic - 2019 Best of the Best NZ (BoB) Report

Best of the Best ‘BoB’ takes a deep dive into the NZ property markets & highlights the top best performing regions (house & unit) nationally & across each of the capital cities.

Complementing the ‘BoB’ report analysis led by our head of NZ research – Nick Goodall, is the 2020 NZ Outlook prepared by our Economist Kelvin Davidson – both are attached. Readers can download FREE report at:

Best of the Best NZ 2019 Summary with CoreLogic Economist - Kelvin Davidson:

· 2019 will go down as another intriguing year for the NZ residential property market, with a key focus on new government legislation – whether actually enacted (e.g. tax ring-fencing for rental property losses) or not (capital gains tax)
· Sales volumes ticked along & prices have generally risen (with Auckland a notable exception) and are set to be around 90,000 for 2019 as a whole, a touch above the decade average of about 88,000, but well below recent cyclical peaks of about 110,000 in 2015-16.
· Tentative demand was a key factor behind relatively subdued sales activity this year. However, part of the explanation has simply been a lack of listings and tight supply of property on the market in most parts of the country – you can’t buy what’s not for sale.

2019 Key Takeouts:

• Property value growth across NZ as a whole eased in the first half of 2019 and hit a lull of 2.0% year-on-year in June (with Auckland dipping to -2.7% in the same month) and has since rebounded to 3.3% (November), with Auckland having turned a corner.
• Apart from Christchurch (which is still relatively flat), most of the other main centres have moved along steadily in 2019, with Dunedin the stand-out star – values there are now 17.1% higher than a year ago, after strong growth in 2016, 2017, and 2018 as well. Value growth is generally solid outside the main centres too
• First home buyers still hold a decent presence (about 24% of purchases lately), the key shift has been mortgaged investors (especially the smaller ‘Mum and Dad’ players) returning to the market strongly in the past 3-6 months, and their presence seems to have a played an important role in the rebound for property value growth.
• Scrapping of the capital gains tax proposals, the start of an upswing for property rents and yields, as well as low returns on alternative assets (e.g. term deposits), have all been factors behind the rising share of purchases by mortgaged investors.

So what lies ahead in 2020?

• The factors that have brought investors back to the market over recent months seem unlikely to fade as we move into 2020 – indeed, it could shape up as the ‘year of the investor’. At the same time, the wider economy looks set to continue to grow steadily next year as well, with unemployment staying low and migration high.
• There could well be a ‘window of opportunity’ for mortgage activity across the first 6-9 months of next year too, with serviceability testing more favourable for borrowers, the banks still competing strongly, and mortgage rates very low. The combination of solid underlying demand and better access to credit bodes well for the property market for at least the first half of next year.
• As we get in the second half of 2020, however, the requirement for banks to start increasing (from 1st July) the amount of capital held on their balance sheets may begin to put some upwards pressure on mortgage rates and/or start to tighten the supply of finance. The General Election (to be held no later than 21st November) could also create some uncertainty.
• After an expected total of around 90,000 sales in 2019 as a whole, activity could improve again in 2020, to about 95,000.
• For values, after an anticipated nationwide increase of about 3.5% in 2019, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see growth of at least 5% in 2020, as ‘provincial NZ’ continues to see rising prices, and the main centres tick higher too.

Overall, Kelvin is ‘cautiously optimistic’ about 2020 and predicts a rise sales and values.

“Against that backdrop, however, anybody associated with the residential property market needs to be aware of what’s going on in the insurance sector, with the move to risk-based pricing for buildings policies.

“This is causing large premium increases for riskier areas (e.g. prone to flooding), and buyers need to assess insurance early in the process rather than just before they go unconditional.”

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


TradeMe: Property Prices In Every Region Hit New High For The Very First Time

Property prices experienced their hottest month on record in December, with record highs in every region, according to the latest Trade Me Property Price Index.\ Trade Me Property spokesperson Logan Mudge said the property market ended the year with ... More>>

Motor Industry Association: 2020 New Vehicle Registrations Suffer From Covid-19

Chief Executive David Crawford says that like some other sectors of the New Zealand economy, the new vehicle sector suffered from a case of Covid-19. Confirmed figures for December 2020 show registrations of 8,383 were 25% ... More>>

CTU 2021 Work Life Survey: COVID And Bullying Hit Workplaces Hard, Huge Support For Increased Sick Leave

New data from the CTU’s annual work life survey shows a snapshot of working people’s experiences and outlook heading out of 2020 and into the new year. Concerningly 42% of respondents cite workplace bullying as an issue in their workplace - a number ... More>>

Smelter: Tiwai Deal Gives Time For Managed Transition

Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed to working on a managed transition with the local community,” Grant Robertson said. More>>


Real Estate: Auckland’s Rental Market Ends Year Near $600 Per Week Mark

The average weekly rent in Auckland reached a new high of $595 at the end of 2020, just shy of a long-anticipated $600 per week. More>>

University of Auckland: Pest-Free Goal Won’t Be Achieved Without New And Better Tools

New Zealand’s goal to become predator free by 2050 will remain an unrealised dream unless new technologies and advances in social engagement continue to be developed, researchers who first promoted it say. A team from the University of Auckland has ... More>>

OECD: Area Employment Rate Rose By 1.9 Percentage Points In The Third Quarter Of 2020

OECD area employment rate rose by 1.9 percentage points in the third quarter of 2020, but remained 2.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level The OECD area [1] employment rate – the share of the working-age population with jobs – rose ... More>>

Economy: Strong Job Ad Performance In Quarter Four

SEEK Quarterly Employment Report data shows a positive q/q performance with a 19% national growth in jobs advertised during Q4 2020, which includes October, November and December. Comparing quarter 4, 2020, with the same quarter in 2019 shows that job ad volumes are 7% lower...More>>