Gas Supply Reducing Faster And Sooner Than Previously Forecast

Data released today by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) shows that as of 1 January 2025 natural gas reserves have reduced 27% compared to last year.

“Natural gas reserves continue to reduce faster and sooner than previously forecast,” says Karlene Tipler, Head of Data Service Delivery, Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment.

“In 2024 natural gas proven plus probable (2P) reserves reduced from 1300 PJ to 948 PJ. The reduction in natural gas reserves is largely driven by field operators reducing their estimates of gas readily extractable in the ground by 234 PJ. The remaining reduction of 119 PJ reflects the portion of gas reserves that were used during the year.

“Contingent natural gas reserves, which is gas that exists in the ground, but cannot be extracted due to current economic or technical conditions, has increased by 184 PJ or 10% on last year’s figure.

“Some of this increase can be attributed to natural gas reserves being downgraded to contingent resources. A significant contributor to this is Pohokura field, which included a large volume of contingent gas which had previously not been reported.

“As economic and technical conditions change, some contingent gas may have the potential to be upgraded to 2P reserves.”

“Decreases in the majority of gas reserves were partially offset by the Tūrangi field, whose reserves were revised upward by 22 PJ. This resulted in a net increase, after accounting for 2024 production, of 2 PJ.

“Natural gas delivered from gas fields also reduced 22% in 2024 compared to 2023. The greatest contributors to this were Pohokura, Maui, Mangahewa, and Kupe fields, who between them dropped 109 TJ/day compared to last year’s data.

“Previous forecasts had annual gas production falling below 100 PJ by 2029, but due to revised production forecasts we now expect to reach this level by 2026.”

The full Petroleum Reserves 2025 data release can be found on the MBIE website here: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-statistics-and-modelling/energy-statistics/petroleum-reserves-data

Note:

Petroleum Reserves 2025 data is current as at 1 January 2025, which means it does not reflect any findings after this date.

Each gas field provides MBIE with a production profile, which is a forecast of their ability to supply gas to the market over the coming years. This is based on existing and planned wells, known developments, and the operator’s understanding of the field.

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