NZ Flag Referendum Update
March 2016
Quantitative Survey

Commentary

>In UMR’s latest flag survey undertaken in last week of February 59% want to keep the current flag and 32% to change. 9% were unsure. That possibly represents a very modest gain for the change campaign as most previous polls have shown a 2:1 margin for retention of the current flag.

>The support for the current flag amongst those who declare they are certain to vote is higher at 62% to 32%.

>National voters are the most likely to vote for change splitting 45% each way. Only 19% of Labour voters support changing the flag with 73% for retention.

>The critical audience as voting begins are the almost 20% of New Zealanders, identified in UMR's January flag survey who are voting to retain the current flag but agree with the statement "in principle I would like to change the flag but I just do not like the alternative“.

>Those voting for a new flag to "remove the symbolic colonial yoke" or because "our soldiers died under the current flag" are not going to change their minds.

>The group voting for retention because they do not like the Lockwood design just might.

>They are younger and much more likely to be Labour and Green voters than the population as a whole.

>The best change message for this group is confusion with the Australian flag.

>As well as reinforcing their dislike of the proposed new design this group is also particularly responsive to a "send a message" to John Key appeal. 79% in this group agree and only 17% disagree that "flag referendum has been a distraction and a waste of money. New Zealanders should send John Key a message by voting for the current flag".

Full release/results summary: UMR_Flag_ReferendumMar2016MediaRelease_final.pdf

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