Richard Prebble's Letter From Wellington 30/10/00
RICHARD PREBBLE’S
Letter from Wellington
Monday, 30
October 2000
The business forum is an implicit
acknowledgement by the coalition that it is the economy that
will determine its electoral fate.
The difficulty now, is
that after ad-mitting the vital importance of busi-ness
confidence to economic pros-perity, the government is on a
slip-pery slope.
The measures announced at the fo-rum are
of no assistance to 90% of New Zealand’s 250,000 business.
Three government policies affect all businesses – the income
tax increase, the ACC re-nationalisation and the Employment
Relations Act.
If government wants to gain business
confidence it must reverse its anti-business
policies.
Social democrat governments in both France and
Germany, after running into the same economic cul de sac,
successfully U-turned. The Letter does not rule out a
similar U-turn.
The increase in income tax was not
fiscally necessary – it was politically driven. ACC
re-nationalisation was not on the credit card list and
senior Labour Ministers have admitted pri-vately the measure
is a mistake.
Is the government strong enough to U-turn?
The Letter doubts it .
Bring On Cullen’s PR
Machine
The Government’s economic woes are compounding.
The Consolidated Tax Receipts for the month of September
show net GST is down 13.1 per cent or $165 million less than
forecast. Michael Cullen's envy taxes are strangling the
economy. The Letter predicts the December Economic Forecast
Update will see Treasury expect the economy to be on a lower
track. The government PR machine will start downplaying the
impor-tance of short term growth statistics.
How Many
Unemployed Are There?
In opposition Steve Maharey
re-peatedly used WINZ Registered Unemployed figures to
attack the Government. ACT MP Muriel New-man continued Mr
Maharey's focus only to have the figures dismissed by the
Minister as an ‘administrative tool’. The correct measure,
according to Mr Maharey, is the Household La-bour Force
Survey (HLFS).
The HLFS is used for international
comparisons, whereas the Unem-ployed Register is designed,
admin-istered and unique to New Zealand. The HLFS strangely
excludes from the unemployed those who have not actively
sought work in the last week or those who work one or two
hours a week. The difference between the two methods is
remarkable. The lat-est HLFS figures show 18,300 people
unemployed for a year or more in New Zealand. WINZ figures
say 108,511 real people with real needs are in this group.
The Real Goal Of A Treaty Clause
The Letter believes
the Health and Disability Bill, with its controversial
Treaty clause, was designed to test the water. The real goal
can be found in Professor Margaret Wilson’s writings in
1995, ‘the whole issue of Maori sovereignty to be debated in
the Courts in a variety of circum-stances…[to] give the
Courts an op-portunity to judge all legislation against the
provisions of the Treaty to see if it conformed with its
terms’. If you’re unsure of the Treaty’s terms, Margaret
Wilson is organising a na-tionwide Treaty (re)education
tour.
Solomon Islands
ACT leader Richard Prebble
visited the Solomons last week where New Zealand has agreed
to commit peacekeepers and police. There does appear to
have been spontaneous acts of reconciliation. On hearing of
the peace agreement the militias laid down their guns and
embraced each other. Young men who have fought each other
for the two years celebrated peace together.
Real
problems remain. The economy is shattered. The police
force that sided with one of the militias has been
compromised, while law and order has broken down. As the
mili-tias celebrated, roving criminal gangs - the prison has
been emptied – looted homes and businesses. Re-storing
order will not be easy. Like East Timor it appears
committing peace keepers to the Solomons will be much easier
than working out how to get them back out.
The People’s
Bank
Ever wondered why the banks are so quiet about Jim
Anderton’s People’s Bank? The media have constantly run
customer dissatisfaction polls, but if a poll was run of
banks it would show banks do not like many of their
customers either. Over ten per cent of customers are not
profitable to banks, while five per cent cost them money
e.g. cheque bouncers. There are still too many unprofitable
branches. Jim Anderton’s People’s Bank will allow banks to
close these branches and an excuse to exit cheque bouncers
and others they’d rather not have.
ACT Three Day
Caucus
ACT MPs hold regular three day Caucuses. These
meetings enable the MPs to think through policy and strategy
and are an important reason for ACT’s cohesiveness.
The
ACT Caucus has given consider-able and careful consideration
to the coalition’s pre-funding superannua-tion proposal. The
Caucus is con-cerned such a large fund – peaking at $50
billion - will be under govern-ment control. It is enough
money to nationalise every company on the stock exchange.
ACT also has con-stitutional objections to attempting to
bind future governments for 50 years.
But the problem of
an ageing popu-lation is real. The issue needs to be faced
and there is a need for less par-tisan politics. ACT does
favour a multi-party solution.
Branding
ACT has found,
like the Alliance, that its separate brand is being swamped.
Joint campaigns with National against ACC and the ERA– even
though led by ACT, have tended to advantage National. ACT
will em-phasise issues that reflect ACT’s stronger
commitment to freedom, choice and personal
responsibility.
ACT holds positions on red tape is-sues
like the Resource Management Act – passed by National – that
Na-tional cannot match. ACT is critical of the open-ended
and basically du-plicate National and Labour policies on the
Treaty, law and order, and welfare. As ACT believes the
coali-tion is now a one term government, ACT’s focus is on
setting the agenda for the next centre-right government.
New Zealand does not want to go back to the drift of the
Bolger
years.