Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Consumer Confidence - Q3 2000 Key Points

Data Flash (New Zealand)

* The WestpacTrust McDermott Miller index of consumer confidence fell to 98.1 in Q3, from 103.9 in Q2 and 123.0 in Q1. This is the lowest value recorded since Q3 1998. A reading less than 100 indicates that the number of pessimists exceeds the number of optimists.

* In contrast to Q2, confidence levels are greatest in the middle and upper socio-economic groups. This reflects the fact that many of the negative factors over the past quarter - such as higher interest rates, tobacco taxes and petrol prices - are likely to have impacted more significantly on lower socio-economic groups.

* A net 18% of respondents claim that their financial position has deteriorated over the past year, the most negative result recorded since 1993. However, a net 7% of respondents still expect to be better off financially a year from now, with better job prospects, salary or wage increases , and improved business profits providing cause for optimism.

* Negative sentiment about the near-term general outlook for the economy underpins household confidence, with a net 35% of respondents expecting bad economic times over the year ahead. In contrast, just six months ago, a net 28% of respondents had expected good economic times. Households cited poor economic policies as a key reason for pessimism. Opinion was divided over whether the weak exchange rate was good or bad for the economy. However, household optimism has improved slightly on a 5 year view - a net 27% expect good economic times over the next 5 years, up from a net 24% in Q2.

* A net 10% of respondents thought that it was a good time to buy a major household appliance, little changed from the historical low levels recorded in Q2. Interestingly, a 52% of respondents cited the prospect of rising prices as a good reason to buy now.

* Household expectations of inflation rose to 4.6% in Q3, from 4.3% in Q2 and 3.8% in Q1. Although household surveys tend to overstate the level of inflation, the direction of movement provides clear evidence that inflation pressures are mounting.

Commentary
* Today's outcome was in line with other measures of consumer confidence published in recent weeks. Retail sales have held up better than we had expected over recent months. Although in part this is probably due to strong net tourist flows, this survey supports the possibility that advance purchases of big ticket goods ahead of anticipated price rises may also have contributed to this strength. In any case, continued household pessimism is likely to dampen domestic demand over the period ahead, reinforcing our view that a near-term recovery in GDP growth hinges on a continuation of strong growth in the external sector of the economy.

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Dairy NZ: ‘More Milk From Fewer Cows’ Trend Continues In A Record Year
Vodafone says it has 10,000 customers using its Wi-Fi Calling service. It took less than three months to reach that milestone; the service began operating in September... More>>

Statistics: Consents Remain At Record Levels
There were 47,715 new homes consented in the year ended October 2021, up 26 percent compared with the year ended October 2020, Stats NZ said today. "The year ended October 2021 marks another record for the annual number of new homes consented,” construction statistics manager Michael Heslop said... More>>



Foodstuffs: New World & Four Square Trial NZ’s First Grocery Delivery Offer With Uber Eats

New World & Four Square have partnered with Uber Eats to unlock the first grocery offering available on the platform in Aotearoa. For New World and Four Square it’s yet another way to put New Zealanders first, particularly with those inevitable last-minute grocery needs... More>>


Canterbury Museum: New Research - Bald Haast's Eagle Feasted On Moa Guts

New Zealand’s extinct Haast’s Eagle (Hieraaetus moorei), the largest known eagle, gulped down viscera like a vulture and may even have been bald, new research suggests... More>>

ABC Business Sales: Demand High For Covid-proof Businesses
Despite the continuing challenges facing businesses in this Covid environment, right now there are more buyers looking for a small-medium sized business than there are sellers in the market... More>>


PriceSpy: Producer Prices Increase
New Black Friday and Covid-19 Report* released by PriceSpy says people’s fear of stepping inside physical shops during big sales events like Black Friday has risen since last year; Kiwis are still planning to shop, but more than ever will do it online this year... More>>

NZ Skeptics Society: Announce Their 2021 Awards, And Dr Simon Thornley Wins The Bent Spoon

Every year the New Zealand Skeptics presents its awards to people and organisations who have impressed us or dismayed us, and this year it’s been hard to pick our winners because there have been so many choices!.. More>>