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Employment Growth Flattening

16 AUGUST 2011

Skilled Job Vacancies And Lead Employment Indicator Show Employment Growth Flattening

The trend of growth in employment appears to be flattening out, according to the latest analysis by the Labour and Immigration Research Centre, a service of the Department of Labour.

The Research Centre’s quarterly Lead Employment Indicator (LEI) and monthly Jobs Online report are now available on the Department’s website at

The quarterly Lead Employment Indicator (LEI) is anticipating moderate employment growth in the September quarter, although the indicator moved sideways (down by 0.1%) during the June 2011 quarter.

The LEI index combines five economic indicators (including the stock market index) which historically have been shown to lead turning points in the employment cycle.

“The sideways movement in the June quarter does not constitute a turning point. That would require two consecutive quarterly movements in a new direction,” says Vasantha Krishnan, Head of the Labour and Immigration Research Centre.

“The indicator is still predicting that employment will increase by about 0.6 % in the September 2011 quarter and between 0.4 and 0.6 % in the following two quarters.”

After reaching a trough during the second half of 2009, the LEI index rose steadily over the last seven quarters prior to this quarter’s fall.

The Jobs Online monthly report for July 2011 shows growth in online skilled job vacancies was flat, compared to the previous month, while still 17.0% higher than a year ago.

“Skilled vacancy growth was flat nationally but still grew moderately in Canterbury,” says Ms Krishnan.

Canterbury led demand for skilled workers, with skilled vacancies growing 4.3% in the last month, followed by Wellington at 1.1%.

Industries with the biggest growth nationally were education and training (up by 21.2%) and healthcare and medical (up by 3.5%).


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