25 January 2019

The provisional estimate of annual net migration in the year ended November 2018 was 43,400 (± 1,500), Stats NZ said today.

Migrant arrivals were provisionally estimated at 144,000 (± 1,300) and migrant departures at 100,600 (± 1,200).

“This international migration release is the first official release of provisional migration estimates using the outcomes-based measure, which fully replaces the intentions-based method. It is the first release of these statistics since the departure card was removed, and includes only outcomes data,” population insights senior manager Brooke Theyers said.

“This is now the way we measure migration in New Zealand.”

The provisional estimates have error bands (±) alongside them, which show 95 percent confidence intervals – the wider the band, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate.

Provisional migration estimates are a timely measure of migration, which we revise each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

“However, after around four months we can classify most border crossings with certainty,” Mrs Theyers said.

Text alternative for figure 1, Migration estimates (thousands) by direction, rolling annual, year ended December 2001 to year ended November 2018

Figure 1 shows the final estimates from May 2015 to July 2017, and provisional estimates from August 2017 to November 2018 – for the new series outcomes-based measure of migration, along with the experimental series outcomes-based measure, which is a longer time series.

The outcomes-based measure is a more accurate measure of migration than the intentions-based measure. This accuracy will flow through into other data uses, including official population estimates.

International migration uses new official measure and International migration: November 2018 have more information on the outcomes-based measure and make comparisons with the previous measure of migration.

The new outcomes-based measure is currently lower than the previous intentions-based measure. For the year ended October 2018, the outcomes data indicate a provisional net migration gain of 45,200 (± 1,200). In comparison, the intentions measure (permanent and long-term migration) indicated a net gain of 61,800. There have been past periods when the two measures have been close and other times when the measures have been different.

The earlier estimates for the new series are final because sufficient time has passed (16 months) to classify those migrant border crossings with certainty.

Annual net migration for the November 2018 year (43,400 (± 1,500)) is provisionally estimated to be lower than a year earlier, when it was 53,800 (± 100). This reflects an increase in migrants leaving New Zealand and continues the trend seen over the last year.

Migrant arrivals were at a similar level as for the November 2017 year.

Text alternative for figure 2, Estimated migration (mean estimate), year ended November 2018

Text alternative for figure 3, Migration estimates (thousands) by direction and citizenship, rolling annual, year ended December 2001 to November 2018

Departures of non-New Zealand citizens (54,700 (± 800) for the November 2018 year) were a key part of lower annual net migration – up 16 percent from 47,000 (± 100) in the November 2017 year. New Zealand citizen departures also contributed – up 10 percent from a year earlier.

More New Zealand citizens left the country long-term than returned – leading to a net loss of 7,800 (± 800) New Zealand citizens in the November 2018 year.

Migrant arrivals for both New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens were at similar levels as in the previous year.

Experimental series and new series

Since May 2017 we have been publishing migration estimates using an outcomes-based approach. These monthly estimates are available from January 2001 to June 2017; they are no longer being produced. They are described here as an ‘experimental series’.

From January 2019, monthly migration estimates are published using the new migration system. This includes a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates shortly after each reference month. The method to produce final migration estimates has also been enhanced by, for example, using day of travel rather than month of travel. These new migration estimates are available from June 2014 to November 2018 and are described here as ‘new series’.

The new series estimates will be extended back to 2001 during 2019. In the meantime, the experimental series is comparable to the new series and is suitable for longer historical comparisons. Note: there are some level shifts between the two estimates series.

More information

See Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories.

See Migration Data Transformation or email info@stats.govt.nz for more information.

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