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Reserve Bank Discussion Papers

The following Discussion Paper has been released on the Reserve Bank's website. The discussion papers are available at http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/discusspapers/

DP2009/11
A cobweb model of financial stability in New Zealand
By Paul Bedford and Chris Bloor
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/discusspapers/dp09_11.pdf

Abstract
Financial turbulence over the past two years has generated increased interest in the analysis of financial stability. However, such analysis often suffers from conceptual difficulties and a lack of measurability. This paper develops a ‘cobweb model’ for analysing financial stability in New Zealand. A key objective of this cobweb model is to depict the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's assessment of financial stability in a single diagram that will enable better communication of the main risks facing New Zealand's financial system. The results of this model are displayed using a cobweb-style diagram, with five dimensions constructed using a wide range of quantitative indicators, supplemented by expert judgement where necessary. It is anticipated that this cobweb diagram will become the focal point of the Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Report.


DP2009/12
A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand

By Viv B Hall and C. John McDermott
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/discusspapers/dp09_12.pdf

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Abstract
There are no official quarterly real GDP estimates for New Zealand, for the period prior to 1977. We report the development of a seasonally adjusted series for a period of more than 60 years from mid-1947, and evaluate statistical properties. The series were developed by linking quarterly observations from two recent official series to temporally disaggregated observations for an earlier time period. Annual real GDP series are disaggregated, using the information from two quarterly diffusion indexes, developed by Haywood and Campbell (1976). Three econometric models are used: the Chow and Lin (1971) model that disaggregates the level of GDP; and the Fernández (1981) and Litterman (1983) models that disaggregate changes in GDP. Our preferred quarterly series is based on results generated from the Chow-Lin model. We assess movements in the new series against qualitative findings from New Zealand's post-WWII economic history.

ENDS

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