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XE Morning Update November 15, 2019

NZDUSD 0.6370 -0.7%
NZDEUR 0.5783 -0.7%
NZDGBP 0.4947 -1.0%
NZDJPY 69.04 -1.0%
NZDAUD 0.9394 0.1%
NZDCAD 0.8447 -0.6%
GBPNZD 2.0210 0.9%

The wave of optimism for the Kiwi has retreated under the tide of global growth concerns. The AUD lead the drop, with poor employment figures seeing a sharp selloff. The Australian unemployment rate edged up to 5.3%. This is still in line with the RBA’s expectations of around 5 and a quarter percent, but that was a week ago, and the market has a short memory. To be fair this drop was compounded by Chinese Industrial production coming in at 4.7%, missing expectations by almost 1%. With Australia exporting so much to China, it is super sensitive to any slowdown.

Out of Europe we had Germany avoid a “Recession” by the skin of its teeth. A recession is technically classed as 2 quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. Last quarter was negative, so this quarters positive 0.1% growth narrowly staved one off. With so much of global finance based on confidence, having Germany in “Recession” could really have done significant damage. This lack of meaningful growth in general though is getting the ECB to really hammer the point that they have done their job with monetary stimulus, and now it is Governments turn to increase growth by using fiscal stimulus. Seems slightly ironic after preaching 10 years of austerity, but there you go.

The Pound is having a good day on reports that Nigel Farage’s Brexit party will contest every Labour seat. This is seen as GBP positive, as if the Brexit party takes seats from Labour, that can only help Boris get a better majority in Parliament, and therefore have not only the mandate, but also the ability to vote the Brexit deal through. Still a lot of water to go under that bridge though…

Global equity markets have come off a touch, - Dow -0.10%, S&P 500 -0.05%, FTSE -0.80%, DAX -0.38%, CAC -0.10%, Nikkei -0.76%, Shanghai +0.16%

Gold prices are up 0.8% to 1,472 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped slightly, down 0.6% to $57.0. a barrel.


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