Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Tony Alexander's Weekly Overview 18/1/13

First Weekly Overview for 2013


Welcome to the first BNZ Weekly Overview for 2013

But guess what? I’ll be on holiday next week so the next WO will appear on January 31. You’ll find the full WO issue attached to this email and at the following link.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/WOJanuary-17.pdf

In this week’s lead article I take a look at how the world is looking like a less dangerous place at the moment. But because money printing is playing a role in the rise in sentiment it would be wrong to conclude that there is a normal cyclical upturn underway. In fact as this year progresses talk will increasingly turn to how to withdraw the huge monetary injections undertaken by central banks. But for now a positive ball is rolling in some parts of the world – which brings one to New Zealand’s rolling investment ball – housing.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/global-outlook-better-but-worries-remain/

Average NZ house prices rose 6.7% last year with Auckland prices ahead 8.6%. In late-2008 I noted that supply issues and plummeting interest rates would limit NZ house price falls to 10% - 15%. They fell 11%. I then went on to note that awareness of the shortage would eventually rise and the buyers would come out to find an absence of listings. That happened exactly a year ago. Now we move to the next stage where investors are worried they may miss out on easy profit so will be scrambling to buy what they can. The result will be that this year prices are likely to rise by more than they did over 2012 and the Auckland rise will spread to other centres.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/housing-starts-the-year-well/

In the Interest Rates section we note that although a monetary policy tightening in NZ still looks unlikely until early next year, there is upward pressure developing on fixed interest rates which is worth watching – even though there is nothing to suggest that predictability of interest rates is any better now that at any stage over the past four years. So I repeat my three year comment – you are a fool if you base your interest rate risk management decisions on a particular set of interest rate forecasts.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/no-monetary-policy-tightening-imminent/

On the economic data front in the past five weeks we have learnt that migration net outflows are easing (watch for what the turning to positive annual flows will do to the housing market), that retail spending growth was only mild in the December quarter with Christmas frankly mediocre, and the economy grew only 0.2% in the September quarter but 2.5% for the year.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/data-generally-okay/


All the best for 2013
2013 areas of interest = China, NZ business culture, expat connectivity. Contact me if willing to network on any of these things.

Tony Alexander
Chief Economist
www.tonyalexander.co.nz


ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Strike: Lyttelton Port Workers Vote To Escalate Dispute

Members of the Rail and Maritime Transport Union (RMTU) at Lyttelton Port today voted to escalate their industrial action. Around 200 RMTU members have been operating an overtime ban since 17 December and today they endorsed a series of full withdrawals of labour at the port. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: NZ Dollar Falls To 3-Year Low As Investors Favour Greenback

The New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest in more than three years as investors sold euro and bought US dollars, weakening other currencies against the greenback. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: NZ Govt Operating Deficit Smaller Than Expected

The New Zealand’s government’s operating deficit was smaller than expected in the first five months of the financial year as a clampdown on expenditure managed to offset a shortfall in the tax-take from last month’s forecast. More>>

ALSO:

0.8 Percent Annually:
NZ Inflation Falls Below RBNZ's Target

New Zealand's annual pace of inflation slowed to below the Reserve Bank's target band in the final three months of the year, giving governor Graeme Wheeler more room to keep the benchmark interest rate lower for longer.More>>

ALSO:

NASA, NOAA: Find 2014 Warmest Year In Modern Record

Since 1880, Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius), a trend that is largely driven by the increase in carbon dioxide and other human emissions into the planet’s atmosphere. The majority of that warming has occurred in the past three decades. More>>

ALSO:

Scoop Business: New Zealand’s Reserve Bank Named Central Bank Of The Year

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s efforts to stifle house price inflation by using new policy tools has seen the institution named Central Bank of the year by Central Banking Publications, a publisher specialising in global central banking practice. More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
Standards New Zealand

Standards New Zealand
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Business
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news