Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls
Prime Minister John Key has led National back into Government at an election which saw National capture 48.06% of the vote – its highest share under the MMP voting system and the highest since the 1951 New Zealand election at which it captured a record 53.99% of the vote. Labour (24.69%) has also slumped below a quarter of the vote and recorded its lowest share of the vote for over 90 years – since 1922 (23.70%). NZ First (8.85%) recorded its highest share of the vote in over a decade – since the 2002 New Zealand Election.
The New Zealand-Herald Digipoll was the most accurate pollster at this year’s NZ Election while the Roy Morgan Poll was the equal second most accurate. The Roy Morgan Poll coveried the two weeks September 1-14 – before the revelations provided by Internet-Mana Party Leader Kim Dotcom that the New Zealand Government spied on its 'citizens'. The election results show the revelations did not increase support for the Internet-Mana Party or Greens but resulted in a 'backlash' which increased support for National.
All pollsters over-estimated the Greens share of the vote by between 1.08% (Herald Digipoll) and a large 4.38% (3 News). The Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.48%. In contrast, all pollsters under-estimated the NZ First share of the vote – the closest being the Herald Digipoll (0.45%), the Roy Morgan Poll (0.85%) and ONE News Colmar Brunton (0.85%). Fairfax Media-Ipsos underestimated NZ First by 2.25%.