Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | News Video | Crime | Employers | Housing | Immigration | Legal | Local Govt. | Maori | Welfare | Unions | Youth | Search


Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls

Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls

National re-elected to third term with record high vote as Labour slumps to worst result in over 90 years

Prime Minister John Key has led National back into Government at an election which saw National capture 48.06% of the vote – its highest share under the MMP voting system and the highest since the 1951 New Zealand election at which it captured a record 53.99% of the vote. Labour (24.69%) has also slumped below a quarter of the vote and recorded its lowest share of the vote for over 90 years – since 1922 (23.70%). NZ First (8.85%) recorded its highest share of the vote in over a decade – since the 2002 New Zealand Election.

The Pollsters

The New Zealand-Herald Digipoll was the most accurate pollster at this year’s NZ Election while the Roy Morgan Poll was the equal second most accurate. The Roy Morgan Poll coveried the two weeks September 1-14 – before the revelations provided by Internet-Mana Party Leader Kim Dotcom that the New Zealand Government spied on its 'citizens'. The election results show the revelations did not increase support for the Internet-Mana Party or Greens but resulted in a 'backlash' which increased support for National.

All pollsters over-estimated the Greens share of the vote by between 1.08% (Herald Digipoll) and a large 4.38% (3 News). The Roy Morgan Poll overestimated the Greens vote by 3.48%. In contrast, all pollsters under-estimated the NZ First share of the vote – the closest being the Herald Digipoll (0.45%), the Roy Morgan Poll (0.85%) and ONE News Colmar Brunton (0.85%). Fairfax Media-Ipsos underestimated NZ First by 2.25%.

Full New Zealand Election Tables - Pollster Comparisons.
View New Zealand Pollster Comparison Tables

© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Veronika Meduna: The Kaikoura Rebuild

A Scoop Foundation Investigation

Friday will be a big day for people north of Kaikōura – and for hundreds of construction workers who are racing to reopen State Highway 1 in time for the holiday season.

By the afternoon, the South Island’s main transport corridor will be open to traffic again, more than a year after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake mangled bridges and tunnels, twisted rail tracks and buried sections of the road under massive landslides. More>>


BPS HYEFU WYSIWYG: Labour's Budget Plans, Families Package

“Today we are announcing the full details of the Government’s Families Package. This is paid for by rejecting National’s tax cuts and instead targeting spending at those who need it most. It will lift 88,000 children out of poverty by 2021." More>>


Gordon Campbell: On Defence Spending, Alabama, And Dolly Parton

The spending lavished on Defence projects to meet the risks that could maybe, possibly, theoretically face New Zealand in future is breath-taking, given how successive governments have been reluctant to spend even a fraction of those amounts on the nation’s actual social needs. More>>


Members' Bills: End Of Life Choice Bill Passes First Reading

The End of Life Choice Bill in the name of David Seymour has been sent to a select committee for consideration by 76 votes to 44. It is the third time Parliament has voted on the issue in recent decades and the first time such a Bill has made it over the first hurdle. More>>


State Sector: MPI Survives Defrag Of Portfolios

The Ministry for Primary Industries will not be split under the new government, but will instead serve as an overarching body for four portfolio-based entities focused on fisheries, forestry, biosecurity and food safety. More>>


Gordon Campbell: On Vulnerable Kids, RNZ Funding, And Poppy

The decision to remove the word ‘vulnerable’ from the Ministry for Vulnerable Children could well mark a whole shift in approach to the care of children in need... More>>





Featured InfoPages