2 October 2019

We published two Census updates today. See:

Summary of changes to Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2019 (provisional)

Read about the upcoming changes to methods we used to produce Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2019 (provisional) to be published on 22 October 2019. In October each year, we release provisional subnational population estimates (SPE) for the June year. We usually also release final estimates in November to include extra births and deaths information.

The next SPE release, scheduled for 22 October 2019, will contain estimates at 30 June 2019, and revised estimates at 30 June 2018. These estimates will be consistent with the revised quarterly national population estimates (NPE) at 30 June 2019 series, published on 15 August 2019 (see New Zealand's population grows 1.6 percent in June year, and National population estimates: At 30 June 2019), and will be disaggregated by five-year age groups, sex, and administrative and statistical geographies.

NPE from the September 2013 quarter to the March 2019 quarter (inclusive) have been revised to incorporate the outcomes-based international migration measure (see Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories). Stats NZ introduced this measure as an experimental series in May 2017, and as the official measure in January 2019, which defines migrants’ travel histories by using a ‘12/16-month rule’.

The 2018-base estimated resident population (ERP), incorporating results from the 2018 Census and 2018 post-enumeration survey, will be published on 30 March 2020. At this time, we will revise all estimates from September 2013 onwards to be consistent with the new base. This will include SPE for 2014–19, using newly developed methodology.

See more detail at https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/summary-of-changes-to-subnational-population-estimates-at-30-june-2019-provisional

And:

Expected updates to Māori population statistics

Media release with information about Māori ethnic population estimates, which will next be updated when the 2018-base estimated resident population is published on 30 March 2020.

The annual update to the Māori resident population, scheduled for publication on 14 November 2019, will be delayed until 2018 Census and 2018 post-enumeration survey results can be incorporated. The 2019 estimates will be published on 30 March 2020, along with revised Māori population estimates for 2014–18.

Stats NZ’s existing Māori population estimates are produced using data from the 2013 Census, and changes to the population since then, including births, deaths, and migration (process shown in diagram below). Māori population estimates include an additional estimated component – inter-ethnic mobility – to allow for people changing their ethnic identification over time.

See more detail at https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/expected-updates-to-maori-population-statistics

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