The weather around Aotearoa New Zealand has been generally settled and warm these last few days, but MetService has been keeping a close eye on the moisture spreading across the country this weekend which brings the potential for rain to many places, maybe even into Christmas Day.

High pressure and warm, humid air drifting across the country has meant temperatures around Hawke’s Bay, Canterbury, and Central Otago have been up around the high-twenties with some spots exceeding 30°C. This warmth looks to continue through the weekend and into next week but riding alongside the heat will be the potential for rain.

Friday brings the risk of showers popping up in the west and south of the South Island but it’s Saturday when the more widespread rain begins to move onto the country. This northwest flow of rain continues into Sunday and there’s even potential for a few heavy showers in the mix, mainly across the North Island.

Current models signal that some of the weekend’s moisture will hang around on Christmas Day. However, it looks to be more broken up than the rain of the weekend, and for many parts of the country there is a chance of passing showers on the 25th and a couple heavier showers could pop up. With the weather coming in from the northwest, it does look like eastern areas of both the North and South Island have the largest chance of a dry Christmas Day.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris warns: “Those hoping to have a day at the beach on the 25th will need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and it’s recommended to have a wet weather plan in case those showers do happen to turn up at your place.”

Those with rain in their Christmas Day forecast currently, shouldn’t give up all hope as there is some wiggle room around the distribution and timing of wet weather. Even if a bit of rain turns up, the temperature looks to be on the warmer side of average and if the cloud breaks, the sunshine will dry things off quickly, but you’ll notice the high humidity.

Looking further ahead, the week between Christmas and New Year looks to remain warm but with a mix of rainy days and more settled ones. 
 

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