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RBNZ MPS: Summary Of Economic Projections

Table C
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)
:::Actuals :::Projections
March year:::1996:::1997:::1998:::1999:::2000:::2001:::2002:::2003:::2004:::2005

Price measures
CPI*:::2.1:::2.0:::1.7:::1.0:::1.7:::3.1:::2.6:::2 1/4:::2:::2 1/4
Labour costs:::1.9:::2.0:::1.9:::1.6:::1.4:::1.6:::2.1:::2:::2:::1 3/4
Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) :::-1.3:::-4.6:::2.9:::2.7:::11.2:::7.4:::-2.9:::-5:::2:::1 3/4
Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) :::-3.5:::-6.3:::4.2:::-0.6:::9.9:::20.6:::-3.5:::-111/2:::-2 1/4:::3

Monetary conditions
90-day rate (year average):::8.8:::9.0:::8.0:::6.2:::5.2:::6.6:::5.4:::6:::6:::6
TWI (year average):::62.2:::66.4:::64.4:::57.3:::56.1:::50.4:::50.3:::55:::563/4:::57

Output
GDP (production, annual average % change):::4.1:::3.5:::1.4:::0.4:::4.9:::2.5:::3.3:::4 1/4:::2 1/2:::2 1/2
GDP (production, March qtr to March qtr):::4.1:::2.1:::0.0:::2.4:::6.1:::0.7:::4.1:::4:::2 1/2:::2 1/2
Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average):::1.7:::1.6:::0.2:::-1.8:::0.5:::0.3:::0.5:::1 1/2:::3/4::: 1/4

Labour market
Total employment:::4.4:::1.2:::0.0:::0.6:::1.4:::2.3:::3.5:::2:::1 1/2:::1 1/4
Unemployment rate (March qtr, s.a.):::6.2:::6.5:::7.2:::7.2:::6.3:::5.4:::5.3:::5:::5:::5
Trend labour productivity (annual % change):::0.7:::1.0:::1.3:::1.5:::1.4:::1.3:::1.3:::1 1/4:::1 1/4:::1 1/4

Key balances
Government operating balance (% of GDP, year to June):::3.5:::1.9:::2.5:::1.7:::1.3:::1.2:::2:::1 3/4:::2 1/4:::3
Current account balance (% of GDP, year to March):::-5.6:::-6.1:::-5.5:::-4.1:::-6.6:::-4.6:::-2.1:::-3 1/4:::-4:::-4 1/4
Terms of trade (annual average % change):::-2.2:::-0.8:::-1.0:::-0.4:::-0.2:::4.4:::4.1:::-4 1/2:::-4 3/4:::- 1/4
Household savings rate :::-3.5:::-2.5:::-4.5:::-4.2:::-5.2:::-3.7:::-2 1/4:::-4:::-4:::-4 1/4
(% of disposable income, year to March)

World economy
World GDP (annual average % change):::3.9:::4.2:::3.5:::1.9:::4.4:::3.5:::1.1:::2 3/4:::3 1/4:::3 1/2
World CPI inflation:::2.6:::2.2:::2.4:::0.9:::2.0:::2.8:::1.1:::2:::1 3/4:::2

s.a. = :::seasonally adjusted
*:::This series is annual CPIX inflation until the June 1999 quarter, and annual CPI inflation thereafter (adjusted by Statistics New
:::Zealand to exclude interest and section prices from the September 1999 quarter to the June 2000 quarter)

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