Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 


Asian business leaders see Fed tapering as largest threat

Asian business leaders see Fed tapering as largest threat to world growth

By Pattrick Smellie in Hong Kong

Jan. 13 (BusinessDesk) – The timing and pace at which the US Federal Reserve unwinds its money-printing programme was identified as the single largest threat to global economic growth in 2014 in a vote from the floor of the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong.

The annual global gathering of a record 2,300 business leaders and senior government officials saw 31.7 percent of delegates voting electronically from the conference floor nominating so-called “tapering” of the US quantitative easing programme as the biggest global economic risk this year.

However, a clear majority of 52.1 percent saw potential for problems in emerging economies to be the biggest threat, following an extended period in which emerging market growth has underpinned the global economy while developed economies tackled the fallout of the 2008 global financial crisis.

That total was divided between 29.1 percent who put fear of a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy at the top of their risk list, and 23 percent who nominated the more nebulous potential for “structural issues in emerging markets” to be the biggest risk this year.

Whereas recent Asian growth had been the result of economic “tailwinds”, including quantitative easing by the US, “things are changing,” Asian Development Bank president Takehiko Nakao told the two-day conference, which opened today.

“Tailwinds are becoming headwinds,” he said, although he remained optimistic that the Eurozone would continue to recover, Chinese economic reforms would underpin its long term outlook, and that Fed tapering would be well-managed.

Global economic growth of 6 percent was estimated for last year, with 6.2 percent forecast for this year.

“Despite moderation, growth remains robust by anyone’s standards,” Nakao said. While global financial markets had gyrated earlier in 2013 at signs of early Fed tapering, moves before Christmas had seen less volatility.

“I think governments are more prepared now,” he said.

A comparatively low 16.2 percent of those who voted in the conference floor poll saw a relapse of Eurozone countries into economic crisis as the most serious threat, although in a later vote, only 54.8 percent thought Europe was now “on the right track.”

While Asian economies were expected to continue “powering global growth” and exporting capital to other markets in the year ahead, only 12.8 percent expected the Asian region to “exemplify financial and fiscal prudence.”

While there was consensus among speakers in the first sessions at the AFF that the days of double-digit annual growth in China are now a thing of the past, there was optimism that economic reforms foreshadowed late last year by newly appointed Chinese president Xi Xinping would see the powerhouse economy of Asia continue to grow sustainably over the longer term.

The AFF comes a fortnight before the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, although the chair of the Hong Kong Trade and Development Council, Jack So Chak Kwong, suggested in opening remarks that the Hong Kong forum was the more relevant gathering.

“Although Davos is good for skiing, this is where things are happening,” he said.

The secretary for financial services and the Treasury for Hong Hong, K C Chan, said the world economy was “very sensitive to US recovery.”

Asian economies were “still contingent, to some extent, by the progress of developed economies.”

The president of the Eurogroup and Finance Minister for the Netherlands, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, gave an upbeat assessment for Eurozone economies in the year ahead, as austerity programmes began to bear fruit, although European economic growth is forecast at just 1.7 percent in the year ahead, from 1 percent last year.

Another vote from the conference floor found 39.9 percent of attendees are optimistic about the world economy in 2014 and 49.3 percent took a “neutral” view, while only 10.8 percent are pessimistic about the outlook this year.

(BusinessDesk)

Disclosure: Pattrick Smellie is in Hong Kong as a guest of the Hong Kong Trade and Development Council

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Cosmetics & Pollution: Proposal To Ban Microbeads

Cosmetic products containing microbeads will be banned under a proposal announced by the Minister for the Environment today. Marine scientists have been advocating for a ban on the microplastics, which have been found to quickly enter waterways and harm marine life. More>>

ALSO:

NIWA: 2016 New Zealand’s Warmest Year On Record

Annual temperatures were above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the annual average) throughout the country, with very few locations observing near average temperatures (within 0.5°C of the annual average) or lower. The year 2016 was the warmest on record for New Zealand, based on NIWA’s seven-station series which begins in 1909. More>>

ALSO:

Farewell 2016: NZ Economy Flies Through 2016's Political Curveballs

Dec. 23 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand's economy batted away some curly political curveballs of 2016 to end the year on a high note, with its twin planks of a booming construction sector and rampant tourism soon to be joined by a resurgent dairy industry. More>>

ALSO:


NZ Economy: More Growth Than Expected In 3rd Qtr

Dec. 22 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand's economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the September quarter as a booming construction sector continued to underpin activity, spilling over into related building services, and was bolstered by tourism and transport ... More>>

  • NZ Govt - Solid growth for NZ despite fragile world economy
  • NZ Council of Trade Unions - Government needs to ensure economy raises living standards
  • KiwiRail Goes Deisel: Cans electric trains on partially electrified North Island trunkline

    Dec. 21 (BusinessDesk) – KiwiRail, the state-owned rail and freight operator, said a small fleet of electric trains on New Zealand’s North Island would be phased out over the next two years and replaced with diesel locomotives. More>>

  • KiwiRail - KiwiRail announces fleet decision on North Island line
  • Greens - Ditching electric trains massive step backwards
  • Labour - Bill English turns ‘Think Big’ into ‘Think Backwards’
  • First Union - Train drivers condemn KiwiRail’s return to “dirty diesel”
  • NZ First - KiwiRail Going Backwards for Xmas
  • NIWA: The Year's Top Science Findings

    Since 1972 NIWA has operated a Clean Air Monitoring Station at Baring Head, near Wellington... In June, Baring Head’s carbon dioxide readings officially passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level last reached more than three million years ago. More>>

    ALSO:

    Get More From Scoop

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Business
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news