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XE Morning Update

The NZD opens at 0.6582

All eyes will be on the UK this morning, with the results of their election starting to come thick and fast. The Polls close and the highly anticipated Exit Poll will come in at 11:00 AM NZT. Historically these can be pretty accurate, so if it comes in from that that Boris does indeed have a clear majority, the market will react straight away. The formal count is expected to be in around 3:00 PM NZT, but depending on the Exit Poll, this may not have too much reaction, as the market has already priced the result in. If however the Exit Poll points towards a lot more marginal outcome or is too close to call, then expect every Boroughs result to be market moving, and we could have a very volatile day. However the risks are slightly skewed. A Boris victory is pretty priced in, which means there should be some upside if it is indeed confirmed, but not as much as the downside would be if he is not.

Elections aside, the market has been buoyed on the latest positive tweets about the Trade deal, with it apparently being close. This isn’t the first time a deal has been hinted at, and you would have to think Trump is doing well day trading his own announcements. To be fair though, if it does happen, we could be starting next week with Boris in, Brexit happening and soon to be behind us, as well as US trade deal done and all that uncertainty behind us. There is a case we could be strongly risk on, and the NZD and the AUD could be moving pretty significantly higher from here.

Global equity markets are generally up, - Dow +0.48%, S&P 500 +0.57%, FTSE +0.79%, DAX +0.57%, CAC +0.40%, Nikkei +0.14%, Shanghai -0.30%

Gold prices are flat at $1,472 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices have grinded 1.3% higher, trading at $59.48 a barrel

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