Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

ASB Housing Confidence Survey Shows Policy Changes Yet To Curb House Price Expectations

  • Surveyed house price expectations have wobbled but remain high despite government policy changes.
  • Buyer sentiment has turned more negative with a net 21% saying it is a bad time to buy.
  • The rate of house price growth is expected to slow over the second half of this year.

Changes in government housing policy announced in March have dampened Kiwis’ house price expectations only a little, according to the latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey. A net 64% of respondents say they expect house prices to continue climbing in the coming 12 months, down from last quarter’s record 73%, but still the third highest result in the survey’s 25-year history.

ASB senior economist Mike Jones says the Housing Confidence numbers are further evidence that housing market pressure is being released only gradually.

“It is notable that housing confidence remains at such high levels. After all, there’s been plenty of policy-related potholes for the market to dodge lately. LVR restrictions are back on, the loan repayment deferral scheme has come to an end, mortgage rates are no longer in free-fall and, in late March, some of the government’s recent tax changes came into effect. Housing confidence joins a number of other housing indicators pointing to stubborn resistance.”

“We were already of the view house price momentum was starting to peak, and we might see a bit more of a drop in confidence next quarter as the full impact of the government’s tax changes are felt. But, so far, housing views have remained steady,” says Mr Jones.

“We’re seeing this reflected in Kiwis’ perceptions of whether it’s a good time to buy, with would-be homeowners understandably frustrated. A net 21% of surveyed respondents now believe it’s a bad time to buy a house. That’s close to as gloomy as it gets for this index and completes a full reversal of the positive buyer sentiment prevailing this time last year.”

The most recent survey, which covers the three months ended April, showed Aucklanders were again the most downbeat about the property market, with prices continuing to hit new records in the region and affordability increasingly stretched.

“Buyer sentiment tends to mirror house price appreciation as houses become even less affordable. The position of the housing cycle is likely also to be a factor. The bigger the boom, the less perceived additional upside, and the bigger the hit to buyer sentiment,” says Mr Jones.

“Bearing these factors in mind, it’s not that surprising we’ve seen buyer perceptions deteriorate rapidly over the past year. After all, recent REINZ housing figures confirmed the current housing boom is now the most significant in recorded history with annual house prince inflation marked at a heady 27% in April.”

“It’s our view that the rate of house price inflation will slow from here, but it’s going to take time given how out of whack supply and demand became during the boom.”

The full ASB Housing Confidence Survey for the three months to April 2021 will be available online at www.asb.co.nz Other recent ASB reports that also include housing commentary can be accessed via a Search page https://reports.asb.co.nz by selecting the keyword ‘Housing’.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Energy Resources Aotearoa: New Law On Decommissioning Could Be Costly Overkill
A new law on decommissioning oil and gas fields passed by Parliament today has good intentions but is overkill, according to Energy Resources Aotearoa. "We strongly support operators taking responsibility and paying the costs for decommissioning, which is what all good operators do," says chief executive John Carnegie... More>>


Commerce Commission: News Publishers’ Association Seeks Authorisation To Engage In Collective Bargaining

News Publishers’ Association of New Zealand Incorporated seeks authorisation and provisional authorisation to engage in collective bargaining with Facebook and Google. The Commerce Commission has received applications from News Publishers’ Association of New Zealand Incorporated (NPA) seeking authorisation and provisional authorisation on behalf of itself... More>>


Reserve Bank: MPC Continues To Reduce Monetary Stimulus
The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 0.75 per cent. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue reducing monetary stimulus so as to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment... More>>

PriceSpy: Producer Prices Increase
New Black Friday and Covid-19 Report* released by PriceSpy says people’s fear of stepping inside physical shops during big sales events like Black Friday has risen since last year; Kiwis are still planning to shop, but more than ever will do it online this year... More>>

NZ Skeptics Society: Announce Their 2021 Awards, And Dr Simon Thornley Wins The Bent Spoon

Every year the New Zealand Skeptics presents its awards to people and organisations who have impressed us or dismayed us, and this year it’s been hard to pick our winners because there have been so many choices!.. More>>



REINZ: Sales Volumes Leveling Out

Data released today by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) shows there were 44 fewer lifestyle property sales (-2.6%) for the three months ended October 2021 than for the three months ended September 2021... More>>


BNZ: Auckland Retail Card Spending Bounces Back In Step Two
Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) card spending data released today shows one week of retail therapy at Alert Level 3 Step 2 has been enough to raise card spending in Auckland to levels greater than before the Delta lockdown... More>>