Trans Tasman's Political Pulse - 14 August 2017

14 August, 2017

Winston Peters may well decide who forms the next Govt.

State of the Parties – NZ First Struggles
To Be Heard In The Din As Election Nears

INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS - NZ First Leader Winston Peters has always been dismissive of polls, arguing they do not reflect the voting public’s mood. He has even called for them to be banned because of the influence they have shaping that mood.

But even Peters would be privately concerned at the impact of recent events on voters’ intentions. Until a few weeks ago NZ First was almost in cruise mode, trying to chip away at National’s support base and plunder Labour-leaning voters who simply were not listening to Andrew Little.

The outcome seemed almost certain – being able to force National to deal with NZ First to form a Govt or to be a very strong player in a “vote for change” coalition split almost evenly between Peters, Labour and the Greens.

The ascension of Jacinda Ardern has rapidly changed the dynamic with the Labour base given new energy. The result has been a crumbling in Green and NZ First support to Labour, while National remains by far the most popular party.

Peters will not be panicking as he remains in a strong position to decide who governs NZ, but his “Tour of the Provinces,” despite pulling good audiences has shown little cut-through.

The plethora of “bottom lines” and scratching the itch of individual audiences appeals to a few, but present an impossible an incoherent policy platform which cannot be delivered. The most recent example is the use of 1080 to eradicate pests.

One NZ First MP rails against 1080 and implies its ban will be a “bottom line”. Another says 1080 will be used until a better alternative can be found. Even on such a simple policy issue there is confusion.

In an opinion piece for Radio Live last week, Peter Dunne, leader of the rival United Future party, gave his assessment of NZ First. “It will be smarting that it has been largely sidelined by the recent shenanigans, despite its solid support in provincial NZ."

Dunne wrote “however, its problem is more fundamental. Its current crop of MPs is the most singularly uninspiring and inept to have been in Parliament for a while - and … having seen many such groupings over the years, I do not say this lightly. The problem is that it therefore cannot risk exposing them to too much public scrutiny, lest they be found out. And that means having to maintain the focus on the party leader and his idiosyncratically destructive style of politics.”

In the end, though, this matters little to NZ First. Peters party’s main appeal remains Peters. He was mocking the media when Donald Trump was still just a struggling millionaire, and Peters is forever appealing to those yearning for a nostalgic past which has gained a rosy glow with the passing of time.

With his MPs he will keep chipping away, mustering all the righteous indignation they can on the campaign trail. However, there is one crucial bump in the road ahead. NZ First must at some point release its list.

This risks bringing underlying tensions in his caucus bubbling to the surface. He must accommodate their ambitions and desire to return to Parliament while fitting Shane Jones into the mix.

It will be a challenge, as will be just getting the oxygen of publicity when the media’s attention has so many other things to be fixated upon.

For analysis and further updates see this week’s edition of the Trans Tasman Political Alert

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