Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence, June quarter 2023

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) fell by 3.9 points to 105.6 in the June quarter. While households remained positive on balance about conditions in the labour market, this was the lowest reading for the Index since June 2021.

“Perceptions about the availability of jobs were the biggest contributor to the fall in confidence,” said Westpac Senior Economist Michael Gordon.

“This measure often provides a lead on the direction of the unemployment rate. The latest reading suggests that unemployment is on track to rise further from its lows over the course of this year.”

Confidence about households’ earnings growth fell in the June quarter. This has remained at low levels since the Covid-19 shock, despite a lift in wage growth in the official statistics.

“We suspect that households have an eye to the rising cost of living,” said Mr Gordon. “Even those who have managed to secure a cost-of-living pay rise will feel like they’re having to run hard just to stand still.”

A full description of the background and specifications of the survey are attached. The survey was conducted over 1-12 June 2023, with a sample size of 1,560. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%.

Acknowledgement

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Employment Confidence Survey and Index. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by the news media provided the Westpac McDermott Miller logo remains inset.

https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2306/ECS_June_2023_Employment_Confidence_Index_Technical_Note_21062023.pdf

https://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/2306/Westpac_McDermott_Miller_Employment_Confidence_Q2_2023.pdf

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