Local Govt | National News Video | Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Search


International migration estimates extended back to 2001

Estimates of migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration using the new measure of migration are now available back to January 2001, Stats NZ said today.

“Extending the time series further back, from 2014 to 2001, is good news for customers who want a long, consistent series for analysis and forecasting,” population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said.

Stats NZ introduced the new outcomes-based measure in 2017 with an experimental series, and in January 2019, the new measure became the official measure of migration. Adopting the outcomes-based migration measure allows us to measure actual passenger behaviour rather than their stated intentions when they are crossing the border. The new estimates supersede the published experimental series and intentions-based series from 2001.

The extended outcomes series highlights the ups and downs in New Zealand’s net migration balance. It also shows that, at times, actual net migration has been different from that suggested by measuring intentions. However, it also generally confirms the patterns and trends measured by the intentions-based series.

The early 2000s saw significant net migration gains, driven by relatively high migrant arrivals and low migrant departures (figure 1). The new extended migration series shows that these net migration gains were even higher than previously indicated by the intentions-based series. For example, annual net migration peaked at 60,700 in the year ended February 2003, rather than peaking at 42,500 in the year ended May 2003 as reported at the time.

There was lower net migration over the period 2004 to 2013, with lower migrant arrivals and higher migrant departures than indicated by the intentions-based series. Between December 2010 and May 2013, departures exceeded arrivals. The new extended migration series shows that these net migration losses were slightly greater than previously indicated by the intentions-based series. For example, annual net migration dipped to a loss of 16,800 in the year ended February 2012, rather than dipping to a loss of 4,100 in the year ended August 2012, as reported at the time.

Since 2013, migrant arrivals have been consistently high, resulting in a sustained period of high net migration. In the five years ended June 2019, net migration added about 280,000 people to New Zealand’s population. The new extended migration series shows that annual net migration peaked at 63,900 in the year ended July 2016, compared with a peak of 72,400 in the year ended July 2017 as indicated by the intentions-based series. The July 2016 peak of 63,900 was only slightly above the previous peak of 60,700 in February 2003.

Contrasting migration flows by citizenship

Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens, as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens, as both affect the population living in New Zealand.

Migrant arrivals are people who have been living overseas, including New Zealand citizens, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.

Migrant departures are people who have been living in New Zealand, including non-New Zealand citizens, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.

Recent net migration gains have been driven by non-New Zealand citizens (figure 2). The much smaller net losses of New Zealand citizens have also contributed to the recent high levels of net migration (figure 3). In the five years ended June 2019, net migration added about 310,000 non-New Zealand citizens to, and subtracted about 30,000 New Zealand citizens from, New Zealand’s population.

Provisional data

As part of the extended back series, we have revised monthly and year-ended final migration estimates up to April 2018; however, we have not revised the provisional estimates. As a result, year-ended provisional migration series are currently inconsistent with the sum of the monthly data. We will resolve this inconsistency when we publish the next international migration release on 12 November 2019.

Impact on population estimates

National population estimates: At 30 June 2019 and Subnational population estimates: At 30 June 2019 (provisional) incorporate the new migration estimates available at the time of release. Revised population estimates incorporating 2018 Census results, estimates of census coverage (net census undercount) from the 2018 post-enumeration survey, and final birth, death, and migration estimates will be available on 30 March 2020. Population estimates up to June 2013 are unaffected because these were revised after each Census of Population and Dwellings.

How we create travel histories

We create travel histories by identifying unique individuals in the border-crossing data within a secure and confidential Stats NZ environment. We use passport numbers, dates of birth, and names of travellers to identify unique travellers. These variables allow us to uniquely identify travellers who have multiple passports or who renew their passports.

Before June 2013, the border-crossing dataset did not contain all the necessary variables, so we were unable to use it to produce travel histories. Recently we have worked with administrative data available through the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to create an encrypted identifier that allows us to identify and construct travel histories for unique travellers back to 2001.

We have been able to extend the national-level outcomes-based migration series back to 2001 using the 12/16-month rule. We have extended the subnational migration series, which require extra data from the IDI, back to 2013.

Where to find the extended time series

The new migration estimates are available via published Infoshare series (Tourism – International travel and migration). We have made some small revisions to final migration estimates for June 2014 to April 2018, reflecting the improved and longer travel histories now available.

We have also extended the seasonally adjusted series back to 2001, with small flow-on changes to more recent seasonally adjusted estimates.

We have extended subnational migration estimates back to 2013.

© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On Why Todd Muller Needs To Own The Privacy Leak Scandal

Whenever a political scandal breaks, party leaders have two basic options. They can confess to being in boots and all, and try to brazen it out : nothing to see here, move on. This tended to be the John Key approach. Very hard to pull that off in this case, given that it involved violating the privacy of sick New Zealanders for party political gain.
The other option is to claim innocence of this terrible, no good, highly regrettable “error of judgement” and apologise profusely for the sins of others, while absolving your own good self of any responsibility. This has been Todd Muller’s chosen path.... More>>

National Departures: Press Statement From Michelle Boag

Today I am announcing that I have resigned my membership of the NZ National Party. The last few days have underscored for me the unhealthy relationship I have developed with politics. For 47 years, I have devoted much of my professional and personal ... More>>


Govt: Statement From Rt Hon Winston Peters

Deputy Prime Minister and New Zealand First Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters has announced he is taking a short stint of medical leave this week. More>>

Isolation: Government And Air NZ Agree To Manage Incoming Bookings

Bookings for seats on Air New Zealand flights into New Zealand will be managed in the short term to ensure the Government is able to safely place New Zealanders arriving home into a managed isolation or quarantine facility, says Housing Minister Megan ... More>>


Government: New Investment Creates Over 2000 Jobs To Clean Up Waterways

A package of 23 projects across the country will clean up waterways and deliver over 2000 jobs Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Environment Minister David Parker announced today. The $162 million dollar package will see 22 water clean-up projects ... More>>


Government: David Clark Resigns As Health Minister

The Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has accepted David Clark’s resignation as Health Minister. More>>


Election 2020: Green Party Unveils Income Policy

The Green Party is today unveiling its Poverty Action Plan, which includes a Guaranteed Minimum Income to ensure people have enough to live with dignity. The scheme resets income support payments to ensure everyone not in full-time paid work gets at least ... More>>


Conservation: New Protection For Dolphins

Extensive new protections are being put in place as part of an updated plan to look after New Zealand’s native Hector’s and Māui dolphins, announced Minister of Fisheries Stuart Nash and Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage today. More>>


Auckland: Water Consent Referred To Board Of Inquiry

Environment Minister David Parker has today “called in” Auckland’s application to the Waikato Regional Council to take an extra 200 million litres of water a day from the lower reaches of the Waikato River for Auckland drinking water and other municipal uses... More>>


Foreign Affairs: New Zealand To Review Relationship Settings With Hong Kong

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced that the New Zealand Government is reviewing the settings of its relationship with Hong Kong. “China’s decision to pass a new national security law for Hong Kong has fundamentally changed the environment ... More>>


Covid-19 Patient Info Leak: Hamish Walker - A Personal Statement And An Apology

I have spoken to National Party Leader Todd Muller and informed him that I passed to members of the media, by email, information containing Covid-19 patient details that was given to me by a source. I did this to expose the Government’s shortcomings ... More>>


PM: Labour Will Extend Loan Scheme 'lifeline' For Small Business

Labour has announced its plans to extend the Small Business Loan Cashflow Scheme and spend $162 million on a waterway clean-up package. More>>


Economy: Infrastructure Investment To Create Jobs, Kick-Start COVID Rebuild

A new package of infrastructure investments will help kick-start the post-COVID rebuild by creating more than 20,000 jobs and unlocking more than $5 billion of projects up and down New Zealand. Finance Minister Grant Robertson and Infrastructure Minister ... More>>


Covid-19: Isolation System To Be Beefed Up After Stress

A range of improvements are already underway to address issues identified in the rapid review of the Managed Isolation and Quarantine system released today, Housing Minister Megan Woods said. The review was commissioned just over a week ago to identify ... More>>


Election 2020: Parties Get Into Gear

ACT has today announced its list for the 2020 General Election. “The calibre and experience of our candidates will impress voters of every persuasion. We have candidates from all walks of life. People who have built their homes, families and businesses ... More>>






InfoPages News Channels