Covering period of Monday 21 - Thursday 24 February

MetService is forecasting mostly settled weather as we begin the last full week of meteorological summer, but there are a few exceptions to bear in mind.

Skies are blue over most of Aotearoa today (Monday), however there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place for the ranges of Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay from 2pm to 9pm today. In the event of a thunderstorm, there is a risk of localised downpours of 25-40mm per hour, which may lead to surface flooding or slips. Yesterday, a thunderstorm moved over Gisborne city at 5pm which produced a downpour of 29mm within an hour; however, today the thunderstorm activity is most likely confined to the mountain ranges.

Before dawn tomorrow (Tuesday) morning, a cold front coming from the southwest is forecast to arrive in Fiordland, where Severe Weather Watches for heavy rain and strong northerly winds are in place.

MetService meteorologist Dan Corrigan explains, “This front is expected to weaken as it continues northwards throughout Tuesday with southerly winds following in its wake, reaching Christchurch in the evening. We’re only expecting moderate rainfall east of the Main Divide, but southern Westland could see a brief period of heavier rain in the afternoon.”

Settled weather prevails on Wednesday and Thursday in most places, although showery weather is forecast for eastern North Island regions as well as Northland, Buller, and inland Canterbury.

Temperatures across the board are hovering around average for late February, however Canterbury will be a bit warmer than usual tomorrow with forecast highs in the upper twenties before the front arrives, then cooler on Wednesday with temperatures only reaching the mid-teens.

“Christchurch has experienced a very gloomy and wet February, while the Capital has also had its fair share of rain,” comments Corrigan. “Christchurch has recorded only 88 hours of sunshine so far this month and it’s already the wettest February there since records began in 1943, totalling 146.4mm of rain - more than triple the monthly average of 43.4mm. The station at Wellington Airport has picked up 290.4mm so far this month, only 4mm shy of the February record.”

When you are making plans this week - maybe heading out for a walk, doing some work on your property, or traveling to the beach for a swim, keep an eye on metservice.com so you can make the most of the weather.

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